ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc

NYSE · Industrials · Airlines

$47.32

Market Closed

End of day · Jun 12, 2026, 12:00 AM

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About

Alaska Air Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operated airlines. The company operates through three segments: Mainline, Regional, and Horizon. The company offers scheduled air transportation services on Boeing and Airbus jet aircraft for passengers and cargo throughout the United States, and in parts of Mexico, Costa Rica, and Belize; and for passengers across a shorter distance network within the United States and Canada. Alaska Air Group, Inc. was founded in 1932 and is based in Seattle, Washington.

https://www.alaskaair.com

ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc

Industrials

That ALK chart has been a bit of a rollercoaster over the past year. Not long ago it traded up around 60, then dropped sharply to the mid 30s in March. It’s working its way back, now sitting at 42.24, but I’m not jumping in with both feet yet. My stance is mildly bullish, but I’m definitely treading carefully here and only see upside to 48.50 over the next couple months. The main reason I’d consider a position is the company’s historical resilience after big drawdowns like the one we just saw. When ALK gets oversold like it did this spring, you usually see some mean reversion, and we’re already seeing a partial bounce. If they can post anything resembling solid operational numbers next quarter, that’s enough for a continued recovery toward my target. Also, jet fuel prices are down a bit from their winter highs, which should help margins. However, this isn’t just a turnaround play. My worry is that those wild swings in price lately reflect real business uncertainty. Airline stocks are notorious for overreacting to just about everything, and it doesn’t take much for a sector wide move to hit ALK hard. If there’s economic wobble or any negative guidance, this can easily slip back into the high 30s. For me, the next catalyst is their quarterly update if management can show they’ve got costs under control and demand is holding up, I see this getting back to 48.50. I wouldn’t back up the truck, but a cautious position seems justified as long as you’re watching for turbulence.

Entry

$42.24

Above

$48.50

Aug 4, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Bullish

Open

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ALK - Alaska Air Group Inc

Industrials

I've been watching ALK grind down from the mid 50s to the low 40s over the past several months, and I think the recent drop to 38 has created a compelling long-term entry for patient investors. This isn't a sexy trade, but the set-up here is quietly solid if you're willing to look past the latest bout of airline sector panic. Alaska Airlines has had its share of turbulence lately, but its balance sheet is still one of the cleaner ones out there much lighter on debt than most peers. That gives them flexibility if oil prices stay volatile or demand softens in the near term. Their West Coast network is also a quietly durable advantage; it's not easy for new entrants to break in and the big three aren't ramping up capacity there any time soon. That route stability leads to reliable cash flow when travel normalizes. Now, there is real risk that cost pressures squeeze margins further, especially if labor negotiations drag on or jet fuel keeps spiking. But the company has shown a willingness to be disciplined with capacity and costs, and the last couple of quarters already baked in a lot of pessimism on that front. If we get any kind of moderation in input costs or even flat demand improvement, earnings could rebound faster than the market expects. I'm looking for 45.90 within the next six months as investor sentiment stabilizes and the next earnings call provides more clarity on forward guidance. If they can show even modest turnaround momentum, I think we see a re-rating back toward the historical average. Not a home run, but a pretty attractive risk-reward for long-term holders willing to wait out the sector's current headwinds.

Entry

$38.00

Above

$45.90

Aug 30, 2026

Karma

103 to 15351

Bullish

Open

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