That ALK chart has been a bit of a rollercoaster over the past year. Not long ago it traded up around 60, then dropped sharply to the mid 30s in March. It’s working its way back, now sitting at 42.24, but I’m not jumping in with both feet yet. My stance is mildly bullish, but I’m definitely treading carefully here and only see upside to 48.50 over the next couple months.

The main reason I’d consider a position is the company’s historical resilience after big drawdowns like the one we just saw. When ALK gets oversold like it did this spring, you usually see some mean reversion, and we’re already seeing a partial bounce. If they can post anything resembling solid operational numbers next quarter, that’s enough for a continued recovery toward my target. Also, jet fuel prices are down a bit from their winter highs, which should help margins.

However, this isn’t just a turnaround play. My worry is that those wild swings in price lately reflect real business uncertainty. Airline stocks are notorious for overreacting to just about everything, and it doesn’t take much for a sector wide move to hit ALK hard. If there’s economic wobble or any negative guidance, this can easily slip back into the high 30s.

For me, the next catalyst is their quarterly update if management can show they’ve got costs under control and demand is holding up, I see this getting back to 48.50. I wouldn’t back up the truck, but a cautious position seems justified as long as you’re watching for turbulence.