AMT at 176.99 is starting to look washed out, especially considering where it was just a year ago. Looking back through the last twelve months, the chart's not pretty. We're talking about a pretty steady slide from the 220s+ last summer to where we are now, with almost no real rallies sticking. You don't usually see a company like this bleed out like that without some good reasons (rate pressures, lack of growth excitement, etc.), but at a certain point the selling feels overdone.
I'm not calling for some major bounce but I do think we're finally getting a setup for a bit of a mean reversion. The business model is resilient, even if growth has slowed. That recurring revenue from tower leases is still sticky, and while new 5G rollouts aren't as huge as the market hoped, they aren't stopping either. At this level, I think a move back to 200.00 is reasonable over the next few months as the dust settles and buyers pick off what looks like a defensive yield play again. That's about as far as I'm comfortable reaching, and I wouldn't get greedy here.
One thing I can't ignore: if rates stay higher for longer, the stock could keep dragging, or worse, start to look like a value trap. Debt's not small here, and refinancing risk is legit. So this isn't a "back up the truck" spot, more like a patient add or a hold if you're underwater already. I'd want to see stabilization in the bond market or some signs of capex picking back up from the wireless guys before expecting much more upside.
Main catalyst is probably just stabilization in rates or even a whiff of dovishness from the Fed. If that lands, you could see a wave of defensive money come back into names like AMT. Until then, keep expectations in check.
Anyone else watching EXPE lately? The stock’s been on a bit of a rollercoaster over the last year. From where it sat last April (down at 151.59) to that big rip in December (peaking at 285.59), then tanked hard in February below 200, and now it's bounced back up to 248.57. That’s some serious volatility for a travel stock. Not exactly the kind of movement that inspires total confidence if you’re risk averse like me.
I’m leaning bearish in the short to medium term with a target of 215.00. Here’s why: first, that post holiday bounce didn’t stick, and the fade through early spring looks more like travel demand softening than just market noise. There’s also a lot of aggressive pricing and promo activity in online travel right now, and I’m not convinced Expedia’s moat is getting any wider. Their costs have crept up, especially marketing. Even as they try to push more direct bookings, it’s becoming harder to keep margins up. Seasonally, Q2 isn’t usually their friend, and this year feels even iffier with growing macro pressure on discretionary spend.
Caveat: if there’s a real upside, it would be another sustained jump in international travel, or maybe a competitor stumbles. The upcoming earnings release is the catalyst to watch if they guide higher on bookings or show clear progress reining in promo spending, the stock can buck the trend. But if they don’t deliver, this probably gets repriced lower.
I don’t see a collapse, just more downside than upside for now. If EXPE drifts down toward 215.00 over the next 7 weeks, I wouldn’t be shocked.
BIIB's had a pretty strong run over the last year. If you look at where it was last April (flirting with 115), it's been through some healthy swings but mostly up and to the right. The climb from Q2 last year really picked up steam in November, and it's held on to a lot of those gains even with a few dips and some obvious volatility. Now it's at 172.97 and I don't see the same room for easy upside as before.
I'm leaning bearish here with a target price of 155.00. A couple reasons: first, a lot of the recent excitement was around pipeline readouts and one off headlines, but the fundamentals haven't shifted as much as the chart makes it look. Revenue growth is still sluggish and while their Alzheimer's portfolio keeps getting attention, it's not clear to me there's a strong ramp coming this year. Plus, competition in neuro goes up every year and payor skepticism isn't going away. There's a real risk that guidance for the next quarter comes in soft and that alone could give BIIB a reality check.
To be fair, if they pull off something surprising in the next set of earnings (or an unexpected positive trial update hits), this could squeeze higher and I'd look dumb. That's probably the main catalyst to keep an eye on whatever gets said in their next call could move the needle quickly, especially with sentiment still hot after the recent run up.
But at this price, I think the easy money's been made unless you have high conviction on a near term positive surprise. For me, it's time to get cautious.
Looking at INTU right now, I'm leaning bearish for the next few months. It's hard to ignore how sharply it's come down from that summer/fall rally last year. It peaked above 750, floated near there for a bit, but then it just kept sliding especially after January, where it dropped from the mid 500s to barely above 400. We’re sitting at 389.51 now, which feels heavy after such a fast fall. That’s a massive reset in a pretty short span.
The main thing worrying me is that Intuit’s core business (tax and financial software) faces a more competitive environment than it did a few years back. Growth is slower, and those wild highest highs from last year were never going to last once the market cycle turned. Plus, with the consumer a bit more cautious and small businesses watching costs, I don’t see a quick turnaround in demand. Margins are still decent but not immune to this kind of pressure.
I’m setting a target price of 360.00. That’s a little under 8 percent down from here. It isn’t a total collapse, and maybe the selling eases soon, but I still think it grinds lower. Not a lot of positive momentum, and fundamentally the recent quarters haven’t supplied a real reason to pile back in yet.
The main risk is that Intuit surprises to the upside in its upcoming earnings. If they manage a beat and guide above expectations, especially if they manage to show any kind of new product adoption, the stock could bounce hard. So, if you’re shorting or even just sitting out, watch out for that next quarterly report in a few weeks. Until then, I’m staying cautious.
Looking at APD right now, I’m leaning bullish but I’m keeping my expectations in check. The last year’s price action says a lot. After hanging around 295 back in March 2025, APD really took a hit, sliding steadily all the way down to the mid 240s by December. That’s a rough drawdown for anyone who held through it. Since then, though, it’s been a pretty decent recovery off those lows, with the stock recently clawing its way back into the high 280s and 290s. There’s definitely been some chop, but nothing too wild in either direction the last couple months.
My main reason for optimism is that APD’s business model is still resilient and the demand for industrial gases is steady, if not exciting. Plus, their management historically runs a pretty tight ship when it comes to capital projects and margins. I’d be surprised if they don’t stick to their usual pattern of gradually ratcheting up earnings guidance over the next couple quarters, even if it’s incremental. Their balance sheet looks manageable and they seem to be staying disciplined on spending.
It’s not all sunshine though. My biggest concern is that the broader economic environment could easily turn against them. If industrial production slows or energy costs spike again, margin compression is on the table. Last year’s sharp drop shows investors can get spooked fast. I’m setting my target at 315.00, which feels reasonable given the recent bounce and assuming no major surprises from the next earnings call.
The next catalyst I’m watching is their upcoming quarterly report. If they signal any improvement in project backlog or guidance, I think there’s enough fuel for a modest grind higher. Not expecting fireworks, but some stability is enough for me here.
I've been tracking ROKU for almost a year now and the volatility here is both a risk and an opportunity for anyone with a long-term view. The stock cratered in the spring of 2025, dropping to the mid-50s, but has since clawed its way back toward the low 90s. It's clear the market is still digesting the aftermath of that sharp sell-off, but I think the base that's formed since last summer is pretty constructive for patient investors.
What keeps me bullish here is Roku's entrenched position in the US smart TV market and the durability of their ad-supported platform model. Even as competition has intensified with big names like Amazon and Google, Roku still controls a huge share of viewing hours and continues to expand its OS reach through partnerships with TV manufacturers. That's not just a vanity metric it translates into leverage when negotiating ad inventory and recurring revenue from platform services. The company has shown an ability to innovate with its software and user experience, and brands want to be where eyeballs are shifting.
I get the skepticism around profitability, especially after the whipsaw in margins we've seen post-pandemic. It's fair to say that rising content costs and macro headwinds could weigh on results in the near term. But if they can maintain positive free cash flow and keep user growth steady, the market will eventually reward that stability. The risk, of course, is that another round of ad spending cuts or an unexpected loss of OS market share derails the recovery, but at current prices I think that's more than baked in.
Earnings next quarter will be a big catalyst. If Roku can deliver on user growth and show some improvement in ARPU, I see this stock moving back toward 111.60 over the coming months. I'm willing to wait for that, given the underlying trends and Roku's key role in the connected TV ecosystem.
I've been following PANW pretty closely since last fall, and what stands out to me is just how volatile this name can be in short bursts, even though the long-term story hasn't really changed. We saw it grind all the way up near 217 late last year, then tumble back down toward 149 in late February before recovering again to the mid-160s now. That kind of swing can throw people off, but for a patient investor, I see it as an opportunity.
Palo Alto Networks is one of the few cybersecurity names with both scale and a clear path to growth. The shift to cloud security is real and ongoing, and PANW has positioned itself as a critical vendor as companies move workloads off-prem. The recurring revenue from their platform subscriptions keeps increasing, and that's what makes their business model so resilient during economic slowdowns. With cyber threats only getting more sophisticated, their importance to enterprise clients isn't going away anytime soon.
Of course, the recent margin compression and the aggressive investments in R&D have spooked some investors. There's a risk that spending stays elevated longer than the market wants, which could weigh on short-term profitability. But history shows that PANW has managed these cycles well, and the uptick in R&D is about entrenching themselves further as a leader in next-gen security, not just chasing vanity growth. If they execute, the payoff will come in both market share and higher-value contracts.
Earnings are on deck in a few weeks, and that's the near-term catalyst I'm watching. If management can offer clarity on margins and show continued growth in billings, I think the stock can grind back to 190.90 over the next several months as the market regains confidence in the long-term vision. For me, this is a core hold with real upside, but you need the stomach for some volatility along the way.
I've been watching HPQ slide for months now, and it's honestly tough to ignore how sharply it's come down from the mid-20s just last fall. The stock is basically grinding at new lows, now sitting at 18.48. For value-oriented, patient investors, I think this is exactly when you want to start a position when sentiment is at its worst and everyone's given up on a turnaround.
There are a couple of reasons I think HPQ is primed for a rebound over the next several months. First, the company is still a cash flow machine even as PC demand has cratered. Their print division, which the market always seems to discount, continues to kick off reliable profits and helps support that chunky dividend. Management has also been consistently buying back shares, and at these depressed prices, that's actually accretive rather than just financial engineering. If PC shipments stabilize or even show a hint of growth, the operating leverage here is significant.
One major risk is that we don't get a recovery in PC demand and the company gets stuck in a value trap, especially if execution slips or margins get hit by ongoing component price pressures. But even factoring that in, the downside looks somewhat limited from here given the cash generation and buybacks. Plus, the market is already so pessimistic about consumer hardware that any positive surprise would likely be rewarded.
The upcoming earnings call is probably the biggest catalyst on the horizon. If HPQ can show even a slight improvement in PC volumes or guide to stabilization in print, I think the stock easily re-rates higher. My target is 21.60 over the next 14 weeks, which just takes us back to levels seen at the start of the year and still leaves room for more if sentiment actually swings positive. Not a flashy pick, but I like the risk-reward here for a patient approach.
I've been watching ALK grind down from the mid 50s to the low 40s over the past several months, and I think the recent drop to 38 has created a compelling long-term entry for patient investors. This isn't a sexy trade, but the set-up here is quietly solid if you're willing to look past the latest bout of airline sector panic.
Alaska Airlines has had its share of turbulence lately, but its balance sheet is still one of the cleaner ones out there much lighter on debt than most peers. That gives them flexibility if oil prices stay volatile or demand softens in the near term. Their West Coast network is also a quietly durable advantage; it's not easy for new entrants to break in and the big three aren't ramping up capacity there any time soon. That route stability leads to reliable cash flow when travel normalizes.
Now, there is real risk that cost pressures squeeze margins further, especially if labor negotiations drag on or jet fuel keeps spiking. But the company has shown a willingness to be disciplined with capacity and costs, and the last couple of quarters already baked in a lot of pessimism on that front. If we get any kind of moderation in input costs or even flat demand improvement, earnings could rebound faster than the market expects.
I'm looking for 45.90 within the next six months as investor sentiment stabilizes and the next earnings call provides more clarity on forward guidance. If they can show even modest turnaround momentum, I think we see a re-rating back toward the historical average. Not a home run, but a pretty attractive risk-reward for long-term holders willing to wait out the sector's current headwinds.
I've been watching DG's recovery closely, and it's hard not to notice how the stock has rebounded from the low 80s last spring to the mid-140s just recently before easing back down to where it trades now. That kind of move doesn't happen by accident there's clearly renewed market confidence in the underlying story, even if the path hasn't been perfectly smooth.
My bullish stance here is built on three pillars. First, Dollar General's core model is all about serving value-conscious shoppers, and in the current consumer environment, that demand isn't going anywhere. The company keeps expanding its store footprint methodically, especially in underserved rural areas, which helps shield it from direct big-box competition and broadens its reach. Second, management has made some decisive moves to improve in-store execution and supply chain efficiency over the last two quarters. These operational adjustments have started showing up in recent earnings beats and improved guidance evidence that the turnaround initiatives are actually gaining traction, not just lip service.
The big risk is margin pressure, especially if inflation remains sticky or wage growth eats into profitability. We've already seen that play out in some quarters over the past year, so I'm not ignoring it. But I think the worst of those headwinds are either behind us or at least manageable as long as comps stay healthy and expense controls hold. If inflation starts to moderate, it could even provide incremental upside, both in margins and multiple expansion.
I'm looking for a catalyst from the next earnings print if same-store sales growth holds steady and the company maintains its improved cost discipline, the market could re-rate this back toward 156.10 over the next quarter or so. I'm happy to be patient here, but I think the risk-reward is now tilted solidly in favor of the bulls.
