Looking at TWLO lately, I feel like we're at a bit of a crossroads. The stock's been all over the place in the last year. Just going back to last summer, there was that run from $86 up past $130 by August, then a nasty dip back to the low $100s, and another leg up around the holidays peaking over $140. Now it’s wound back down closer to $117. So yeah, volatility is the norm here, but there’s a sense that the floor is a bit higher than before.
I’m leaning bullish on this one for a move to $138.65 in the next 12 weeks or so. The main reason is that management finally seems serious about cost discipline after all those years of just chasing top line growth. Margins have gotten better and the most recent guidance sounded less like wishful tech optimism and more like an actual plan. Plus, customer churn looks like it’s stabilizing. If they can keep even modest growth while showing continued profitability, the rerating could be quick. There’s still a lot of long term upside if communications APIs keep eating into legacy telco and TWLO is still the name in that space.
But it’s not all smooth sailing. The biggest risk I see is macro related: if enterprise budgets get tighter, usage based billing could get pinched fast. We saw that mini collapse in August a reminder that when growth expectations get reset, this thing can drop double digits in a hurry. So anyone jumping in here should have some stomach for swings, especially if some macro shock pops up.
The next real catalyst is the upcoming quarterly call. If they can show another quarter of consistent margin and hold onto those enterprise wins they’ve been crowing about, I think we’ll see some multiple expansion. Otherwise this could just chop sideways again. Not a set and forget name, but there’s a real path to upside if execution holds.
AI stock has been through a wild ride this past year. Just looking at the numbers, it was trading up at 27 and change last summer, basically collapsed in August, and then slow bleed ever since. Now it's at 8.28, which honestly feels like the market’s nearly given up on it. But I don’t think it’s quite dead money down here. I see a realistic shot to hit 9.90 in the next couple of months.
Main reason is just how much sentiment has overshot to the downside. There’s been a string of disappointments (earnings, maybe failed partnerships) that didn’t help, but at this price level, there’s also a decent chunk of pessimism already priced in. At current valuations, any stabilization in revenue or the hint of a turnaround can trigger a relief pop. The company is still hanging onto valuable contracts, and even modest guidance can get the stock moving.
I’m not ignoring the risk. If next quarter’s report is another miss or they guide down again, the stock could drift even lower or just chop sideways. There’s not a lot of margin for error, and trading volume has been shrinking too, which makes it hard for big moves.
The near term catalyst is earnings in a few weeks. If the company shows any kind of progress (even just meeting expectations), I expect the stock to retrace some of its losses. Not shooting for the moon, just a bounce back to 9.90.
So BBWI at 18.10 looks battered, and honestly that's what caught my eye. This thing was trading above 30 less than a year ago and it's been a pretty steady slide, with a few dead cat bounces that didn’t hold. The most recent leg down took it from over 24 in February to basically where we are now. Feels like all the optimism has leaked out of this stock and right now it’s just unloved retail.
I’m leaning bullish here, but not a hero call. The valuation has fully reset and management has been slashing costs aggressively. Even if same store sales are meh, BBWI’s margins should see some support. People sleeping on just how sticky their core customer is when the marketing gets dialed up. That’s one thing I think could surprise to the upside the next few quarters.
I’m targeting 21.70, which isn’t wild upside but it would be a decent bounce from these levels. I’d expect that to play out over the next 10 weeks if we get either an earnings beat or some positive commentary about traffic recovering. Watch for any hints on the next earnings call that promo activity is coming down. If that happens, shorts will start covering in my opinion.
Biggest risk I see is another guide down if consumer spending weakens further. We’ve already seen how fast this name can drop when sentiment goes south. Not a tuck it away and forget setup, but at this price you’re at least getting paid to take the shot if the bottom is mostly in.
ECL's past year has been a pretty wild ride. Just glancing at the chart, you can see a lot of back and forth April last year it was hanging out around 238, then made moves up toward 265 or so by the summer. There was that late year jump above 280 and even a spike over 300 in February. But if you zoom out, it’s mostly been bouncing between the mid 250s and 280s, with no real follow through past that.
I’m bullish here, but not calling a moonshot. My target is 313.00 over the next couple months. ECL is still a juggernaut in its space. Their recurring revenue model with institutional clients gives a buffer even if the broader economy gets wobbly. Plus, management’s been pushing some new sustainability initiatives that are getting good feedback could help margin expansion if they execute.
What’s getting me off the fence is the upcoming earnings. Last couple calls, they’ve managed to surprise a bit on both top and bottom line. Nothing crazy, but enough to show they’re not sitting still. If the next print shows them holding pricing power and maybe a little cost discipline, people will start to price in more than just "steady eddy" growth.
There is a risk, though valuation isn’t cheap. If they slip up, or if the market gets spooked by macro stuff (rates, whatever), this could easily get dragged back below 260. I also worry that the recent pop to 301 might have gotten a little ahead of execution, so if you’re in this, you gotta watch position size.
SPLK at 156.90 feels stuck in the mud right now. The past few months have been ridiculously flat if you check the chart, just 156.90 over and over. So either everyone is asleep or there’s a big move coming if something shakes loose.
I’m still taking a bullish stance here, setting my target at 172.00. The main thing is that Splunk (SPLK) keeps deepening its relationships with big enterprise customers and, love it or hate it, that recurring software revenue is sticky. I think they’re positioned to cross sell and upsell in a way that should push growth a bit higher than people expect. Also, if sentiment shifts back toward data and analytics plays, SPLK is set to ride that wave.
What could mess it up? Management’s guidance last quarter felt conservative to me, so there’s a real possibility that the next earnings is kind of a non event and the stock stays dead money for another quarter. Macro headwinds are always lurking too, obviously. Still, if they can land a couple more major enterprise deals or announce a partner integration, that could be the spark. Next earnings is on my radar as a near term catalyst if they beat (or even just guide a touch up), I expect momentum to finally break up from this weird stasis.
Bottom line, I’m in for a move to 172.00 over the next 8 weeks, but I’m not betting the farm. Just feels like SPLK has more upside than down from here, with a little patience.
I've been tracking MCD for a while now and the recent price action really caught my eye. After grinding sideways for months in the 300 to 315 range, it finally broke out sharply in February, popping from the low 300s up to a recent peak of 334.56. That's a solid technical move, but since then it's pulled back to 327.94. I see this as a healthy retracement after that run, not the start of a breakdown.
The setup looks promising because the stock showed resilience during last year's chop, bouncing every time it dipped below 300. That kind of support, especially in a consumer staple like McDonald's, suggests institutions are still buyers on weakness. Also, we're heading into the spring season, when restaurant comps tend to pick up. If they give bullish guidance or post a strong comp in the next earnings, that could be the spark for the next leg up.
That said, I'd be careful here. The move from 287 in June to 335 in February was big, and if broader markets get wobbly or we see a consumer slowdown, MCD could revisit support in the low 310s. But as long as it keeps holding above the 315 level and doesn't lose the 200-day, I'm bullish for a push back toward 343.21 in the next few weeks.
Earnings are the obvious catalyst, and any upside surprise on margins or international growth will get the algos involved again. I'm watching the price action closely around those events. If you get a weak tape and it can't hold 315, that's my stop.
LIN has been quietly grinding higher since that November washout to the low 410s. If you map out the last several months of price action, you can see a pretty clear uptrend emerge from the December base. Each dip keeps getting bought, and since January the higher lows have been stacking up. That breakout move in early February where it ripped through 470 and held was a strong confirmation that buyers are firmly in control now, not just opportunistic bargain hunters. Recently, we've been consolidating a bit below 500, but the longer it churns up here without breaking down, the more constructive it looks for a sustained leg up.
From a technical perspective, the 200-day average is sloping up and the stock is now well above it. Momentum is healthy, with RSI staying out of overbought territory even as price makes new local highs, which tells me this isn't a blow-off top scenario. Volume spikes on green days over the last couple of months suggest real institutional buying, not just retail FOMO. The last test of the mid-470s acted as a springboard right back to current levels, implying strong demand on every pullback.
The main risk is that if LIN fails to hold above 485 490 and slips back into that late-2025 range, the uptrend gets called into question. An ugly macro headline could easily cause a fake breakdown, so I'd want to see confirmation before sizing up. But if the trend holds, the chart is setting up for a move to 584.60 over the next 10 weeks, especially with the next earnings report serving as a solid catalyst for a breakout above this resistance zone.
