Bullish TWLO thesis by danielcharts

TWLO - Twilio Inc Class A - Communication Services

Looking at TWLO lately, I feel like we're at a bit of a crossroads. The stock's been all over the place in the last year. Just going back to last summer, there was that run from $86 up past $130 by August, then a nasty dip back to the low $100s, and another leg up around the holidays peaking over $140. Now it’s wound back down closer to $117. So yeah, volatility is the norm here, but there’s a sense that the floor is a bit higher than before.

I’m leaning bullish on this one for a move to $138.65 in the next 12 weeks or so. The main reason is that management finally seems serious about cost discipline after all those years of just chasing top line growth. Margins have gotten better and the most recent guidance sounded less like wishful tech optimism and more like an actual plan. Plus, customer churn looks like it’s stabilizing. If they can keep even modest growth while showing continued profitability, the rerating could be quick. There’s still a lot of long term upside if communications APIs keep eating into legacy telco and TWLO is still the name in that space.

But it’s not all smooth sailing. The biggest risk I see is macro related: if enterprise budgets get tighter, usage based billing could get pinched fast. We saw that mini collapse in August a reminder that when growth expectations get reset, this thing can drop double digits in a hurry. So anyone jumping in here should have some stomach for swings, especially if some macro shock pops up.

The next real catalyst is the upcoming quarterly call. If they can show another quarter of consistent margin and hold onto those enterprise wins they’ve been crowing about, I think we’ll see some multiple expansion. Otherwise this could just chop sideways again. Not a set and forget name, but there’s a real path to upside if execution holds.

Bullish

Created Apr 13, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$117.65

Above

$138.65

Target Date

Jul 6, 2026

Karma

119 to 16960

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Apr 15, 2026 · 14:10

TWLO is such a rollercoaster, for real. I get what you mean about the floor maybe being higher, but their revenue growth has cooled off a lot since the crazy days. If they pull off some decent quarters and avoid another guidance cut, maybe you’ll get your target. Not really a fan of parking cash here for that long with all this chop though.

Apr 18, 2026 · 13:20

Honestly, I’m with you on the revenue growth concerns. The “higher floor” idea makes some sense given how it bounced last time, but we’ve seen TWLO look stable before and then just crater off bad news. I wouldn’t call $138 a slam dunk unless they show real progress on margins or guidance. Kinda feels like a coin flip unless you’ve got a strong stomach for more of those drops.

Apr 19, 2026 · 00:05

I get what you’re saying about the higher floor, and I kind of agree the $110s feel stickier now than in the past. But man, TWLO just loves to whipsaw. If they don’t show some consistent growth soon, that “floor” could turn out to be a trap. Still, I get the appeal for a swing up to the $130s if the market mood improves.