Bullish SPLK thesis by danielcharts

SPLK - Splunk Inc - Technology

SPLK at 156.90 feels stuck in the mud right now. The past few months have been ridiculously flat if you check the chart, just 156.90 over and over. So either everyone is asleep or there’s a big move coming if something shakes loose.

I’m still taking a bullish stance here, setting my target at 172.00. The main thing is that Splunk (SPLK) keeps deepening its relationships with big enterprise customers and, love it or hate it, that recurring software revenue is sticky. I think they’re positioned to cross sell and upsell in a way that should push growth a bit higher than people expect. Also, if sentiment shifts back toward data and analytics plays, SPLK is set to ride that wave.

What could mess it up? Management’s guidance last quarter felt conservative to me, so there’s a real possibility that the next earnings is kind of a non event and the stock stays dead money for another quarter. Macro headwinds are always lurking too, obviously. Still, if they can land a couple more major enterprise deals or announce a partner integration, that could be the spark. Next earnings is on my radar as a near term catalyst if they beat (or even just guide a touch up), I expect momentum to finally break up from this weird stasis.

Bottom line, I’m in for a move to 172.00 over the next 8 weeks, but I’m not betting the farm. Just feels like SPLK has more upside than down from here, with a little patience.

Bullish

Open

Created Mar 29, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$156.90

Above

$172.00

Target Date

May 24, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 30, 2026 · 13:06

Honestly, I get the frustration with how dead SPLK’s been trading. You’re not wrong about the enterprise crowd sticking around for those recurring deals, but the stock needs a real catalyst or this sideways drift will just keep going. I’ll keep an eye on their next couple earnings, but right now it just feels like watching paint dry. Maybe your patience pays off but I’m not rushing in yet.

Apr 17, 2026 · 22:38

Totally agree, it’s just hard to see what shakes it out of this rut unless there’s an actual headline. The recurring revenue is nice, but at this price it feels like the market already knows and just doesn’t care until something changes. I’m with you on watching earnings, but I’d want to see new guidance or a bigger deal before calling a breakout.

Apr 11, 2026 · 23:35

I get your logic with the sticky enterprise revenue, but man, this thing has just been sleeping. Unless someone lights a fire under it with a new product or an acquisition rumor, I don’t see what changes. The recurring business is solid, but the market seems bored out of its mind waiting for anything new from SPLK. Maybe it grinds up to 172 if tech heats up, but that’s a long wait for not a ton of upside.