Anyone else been watching TFC over the last year? It’s definitely been a ride. The stock was languishing around 39 44 for months, then had that pop last summer up to 45+, and more recently just swung between the mid 40s to crossing 50. I’m leaning bullish here, with a target of 59.25 in the next few months.

The main thing for me is that the recent volatility isn’t really about TFC’s core business. Most of the choppiness feels like the general regional bank sector vibes: everyone’s still spooked about rates and deposit flows, but TFC’s balance sheet actually held up better than a lot of its peers. Loan growth has been slow, sure, but their credit quality has stayed solid even during the mess earlier in the year. Also, they’ve started executing on cost cutting, which should start showing up more in the numbers soon.

The kicker is that next quarter’s earnings (should be late July) could be a catalyst if we get even a modest beat, since expectations are still pretty muted in this part of the market. If they guide for stable NIMs and show some good progress on efficiency, I think that’s enough to get the stock rerated. The chart says there’s some resistance near 55 but honestly if sentiment flips this could run faster than expected.

One risk here is that regional banks could get hit again if rates move unexpectedly or if there’s a new regulatory push after the dust settles on the sector. If that happens, TFC isn’t immune and we could retest those mid 40s. But I like the risk/reward here with more upside if things stabilize. Watching for a strong update on expenses and maybe even a small div hike as a bonus in the next report.