So apparently we're all pretending oil is going away next week, huh? Look, PXD at 269.62 feels like it's just chilling in the "should I pump or just take a nap" zone. I'm actually bullish here, setting sights on 304.00 in the next couple months because, let's be honest, these guys are basically oil royalty at this point.
Reason one: cash. They're pumping out cash like it's a vending machine that ate your last dollar. Dividends? Juicy. Buybacks? Wouldn't be shocked. Also, energy prices love to stay volatile, and PXD isn't some shaky meme play that folds at the first whiff of trouble. Yes, we all know oil is "cyclical" (yawn) but last I checked, planes and trucks still exist and the transition to, uh, unicorn powered Teslas is not exactly on fire.
There's one thing that could mess this up: if energy prices totally faceplant or regulators get spicy out of nowhere, this could get stuck crab walking for months. Wouldn't be my first rodeo holding dead money, but that's a mood killer.
I'm looking for a decent pop if we get any surprise OPEC cuts or fun inflation data, honestly. If oil rips, PXD will follow. Targeting 304.00, which is about a 13 percent move. Not YOLOing, but I'll take it over chasing the next EV fairy tale.
Can we just stop and appreciate whatever fever dream CAT is living through? Look at that price chart: from barely 300 ish last April to 790.66 now. That's not a stock, it's a bulldozer with nitro. I keep waiting for someone to unplug the cheat codes, but nah, just pure up only vibes. Everyone on FinTwit is screaming "bubble" but also quietly buying in. Love to see it.
Okay, so I'm not calling the top yet. Heavy equipment demand is still there (if you believe the infrastructure spend hype) and CAT is basically the only name normies know when you talk construction. The margins are fattening up, not melting. Plus, with any sort of global recovery, CAT’s exposure to all the big projects puts it right in the sweet spot.
Still, it's gotten a little vertical lately. I'm going bullish but, like, with a side of "don't YOLO your rent money." My target is 936.79, which is a ridiculous number but hey, that's only a 20 percent rip from here and this stock already did 2x in a year. If CAT beats big on next earnings and guides up again, that's all she wrote. Shorts will get rolled, again.
If you want a risk? It's simple: if infrastructure spending gets cold feet, or if CAT’s order book suddenly gets light, the hype train could go off the rails fast. CAT’s not immune to macro rug pulls. But I'm holding on for at least another 12 weeks. This thing still has meme potential, and those who fade it keep getting steamrolled. LFG.
Not gonna lie, BKNG has been on one of those rollercoaster loops that makes your stomach drop and then you realize you left your wallet in the seat. Remember last summer? This thing ran from just over 4200 to almost 5700 like it was booking its own vacation, then started crashing back down. Now we’re basically back where we started, chilling at 4194.31. Did the market just collectively hit "cancel reservation"?
Anyway, I’m calling bullish from here. Yes, the price action looks like someone’s EKG during a mid flight panic, but most of that was macro and some classic guidance drama. BKNG still owns way too much of the online travel pie. And travel? People are going wild on it again. Revenge travel 3.0. Q2 earnings could easily be the catalyst to get this thing unstuck. If they drop even a halfway decent "beat and raise" with solid summertime demand, shorts will need a new holiday.
I’m targeting a spicy 5000.00 in the next couple months. That’s like 20 percent upside from here, which isn’t yolo but not chicken either. Reasons: 1) pent up international bookings are popping again; 2) these guys are more profitable than your local airport bar. Risk? If the European economy sneezes and folks stay home, we might be flatlining at this level. But with the chart this ugly, even a little good news could make the algos go brrr.
TLDR: Booking at under 4200 feels like a steal if you can stomach some turbulence. Earnings are the play. See y’all at 5k or on the cancellation line.
Lol so CFLT just went from $17 to $31 in like half a year? That’s not a stock chart that’s a meme generator. The bounce off those August lows was savage. If you blinked you missed the rocket. But here’s the spicy take: this isn’t done yet. I’m still bullish and calling for $36.99 as the next meme checkpoint.
Why risk my hard earned dopamine on this? First, whatever they said in December lit a fire. Maybe guidance, maybe a whisper of new customers, maybe just the algos losing their minds. Doesn’t matter, the volume was real and it held gains. Second, this space is still eating up data infra spend from the cloud crowd. The big dogs aren’t slowing up, so Confluent keeps getting thrown bones by the market.
Alright, bear caveat time. Volatility is still a full on clown fiesta here. If a single growth number or billings line stumbles (or hey, management coughs wrong in a call), you’re going to see a panic in the comments and possibly a bagholder convention. Not for the weak handed.
Big catalyst is the next earnings print. If they do a beat and raise two quarters in a row, I’ll be popping popcorn for those chasing FOMO. Let’s see some shorts get squeezed. Target’s $36.99, lock it in. Diamond hands but only sorta.
Alright, someone explain to me how UPS can yo yo so hard and still be boring enough to make your dentist jealous. Look at this: a year ago UPS was chilling above 110, then August comes around and boom, faceplants sub 90. I thought brown was supposed to deliver consistency, but nah, this chart is a rollercoaster they forgot to take down after Halloween.
I’m bullish here, even if it hurts to say it as a certified package tracking addict. We just had a nasty dump to the mid 80s in late summer, and since then UPS has shown it can bounce see how it clawed its way back to 115 before March earnings whacked us back to reality. That kind of violence means one thing: shorts got comfy, and now they’re probably sweating in brown shorts. My target: 110.00. Not mooning, but enough to make you feel smart for grabbing rerouted packages.
Why bet the brown truck? Earnings should get less ugly as fuel costs keep sliding and Amazon takes a breather on eating everybody’s lunch. Also, dividend chads are lurking everywhere under 100. They can’t resist yield, especially when bonds are for boomers. Last spike to 116 was probably FOMO, but anything under 100 is just asking for another squeeze if volume picks up or guidance isn’t a dumpster fire.
Obvious risk: UPS keeps dropping guidance or announces another pricing war. If ecommerce slows or labor drama comes back, you’re bagholding yourself into next year. So maybe not diamond hands, just paper strong for now. Next earnings call is the big show if they guide above consensus, we’re probably getting a package delivered straight to 110 and shorts can sign for it.
Did Comcast (CMCSA) just slide down the content stairs and land with a whimper? People were running for the exits over the last year. Look at this chart: last summer CMCSA was living that $35+ life, now it's hovering at $28.33 and basically got yeeted into the bargain bin. If a stock could get sympathy cards, CMCSA deserves some.
Here’s the hot take: this is classic oversold wormhole. Everyone hates cable, everyone hates old media, but CMCSA still prints cash and owns a metric ton of infrastructure. I’m not saying they’re going to be everyone’s favorite stock, but at these prices, the risk/reward starts to look almost not terrible. If they even manage a halfway decent Q2 with a streaming/broadband surprise, that’s a meme tier bounce back.
My target: I’ll call $33.50. Maybe not lambo money, but a ~5 buck move from here is spicy enough, and it’s still well under where they were before people collectively decided TV was cringe.
Yeah, risk is real: CMCSA could guide down if cord cutting gets even dumber or if the ad market stays dumpster fire status. Or some unexpected regulatory faceplant. The bear case is alive and lurking.
But I’m watching for the next earnings and anything on subscriber churn. All it takes is one solid quarter or some corporate move (spin off or a buyback flex) and suddenly cable isn’t dead, just resting. Not exactly diamond hands, but definitely not dead money at $28ish.
SPGI is out here speedrunning the price chart like it's a Mario level. Down from the 550s to 408 bucks in just a couple months? That'd give any bagholder motion sickness. But after that massive dump early Feb, it's been floating sideways near 430. Not gonna lie, this is starting to look like the "is it dead or is it bargain bin?" setup.
Here's what I'm seeing: S&P Global prints money with its data and index business (indexes, ratings, analytics, all that good stuff the suits can't live without). This isn't some flash in the pan meme stock selling scented candles, these guys basically run the scoreboard for global finance. Plus, when rates eventually chill out, debt issuance picks up and the money printer goes brrr again for SPGI's ratings biz.
Roll all that up and I think it limps back to 495.00 in the next couple months. That's about 21 percent from here. If the market stops being allergic to anything related to finance, shorts are gonna run out of steam fast.
But if the Fed decides to go full Jenga on rates or global credit starts melting, then all bets are off. Volatility isn't done, and these big drawdowns aren't just for fun could get uglier before it gets better.
Next earnings will be spicy. If they show any sign of margins stabilizing or guide for a rebound in debt issuance, that's your unlock. Until then, just trying to catch the bounce before the algos eat my lunch. Not diamond hands but I'm not paper either. Let's see where this thing goes.
AMZN has been bouncing around like a caffeinated squirrel the last year, but let's be honest, anyone buying near 209.87 right now is either lucky, insane, or both. Just scroll the chart: this thing dropped to the low 170s last spring, only to rip all the way up over 240 by January, and now it's cooled off back into the low 210s. That's not just volatility, that's opportunity if you catch it on the right side. And I think this cycle is setting up for another leg higher, with 247.10 squarely in my sights.
Amazon Web Services is still the print money machine everyone wishes they had. The last earnings call had management dropping hints about reaccelerating cloud demand, and AI workloads are only going to juice that segment further. E-commerce margins have been creeping up as logistics investments finally stop being pure cost centers. This isn't the same margin-starved retail monster from three years ago. If AWS growth snaps back to even mid-teens, the street's going to have to rerate the whole business.
Here's the fly in the ointment: competition in the cloud isn't going away and Microsoft keeps eating share. If Azure keeps up the current pace, AWS can't coast. But Amazon's sheer scale gives them room to play offense in both cloud and retail plus the advertising segment is becoming a dark horse earnings driver. People keep sleeping on that, but it's a high-margin business that's just getting started.
The next big move could come with Q1 earnings. If AWS growth comes in strong and the retail margin story keeps holding up, I wouldn't be surprised to see a sharp move right past 245. No guarantees this is Amazon, not a lottery ticket but the risk/reward at these levels feels pretty good if you can stomach the swings.
This chart is basically the definition of a rollercoaster. AXP ripped from under 235 in April to almost 382 by December, then got absolutely smoked all the way down to around 303 in March. I'm looking at this pullback as a rare chance to buy one of the most proven compounders on the planet when the market's not feeling so optimistic. My target is 344.22 in the next two months, once the panic settles and buyers remember what kind of name this really is.
The core bull case here is that Amex's cardholder base skews ultra-premium and just doesn't react to economic jitters the way most financials do. Their spend is driven by high-income customers who keep swiping through thick and thin, and that's why their default rates stay so absurdly low even when things get wobbly. That means reliable revenue, which is exactly what you want in a sideways market.
On top of that, AXP's merchant fee model isn't getting hit the way the bears predicted. If anything, the travel and dining rebound has given them pricing power, and the market seems to have forgotten how much of their business comes from those spend categories. The digital bank arms race is sucking all the headlines but Amex is just quietly printing cash quarter after quarter.
That said, you can't ignore the risk from a genuine consumer spending crunch. If people really start cutting back, even Amex's premium crowd won't be immune, and the stock could easily retest those March lows. But with earnings coming up and the Fed signaling steady rates for now, I think the setup is there for a sharp bounce. If the company beats on volume growth, expect shorts to scramble and the narrative to flip fast.
I'm honestly kind of laughing at how EQR has been dropping like a rock since last spring down from the low 70s to right around 60 now. Feels like everyone bailed on residential REITs at exactly the wrong time, and I'm out here catching this falling knife and somehow not bleeding (yet). So here's my take: this thing is oversold, and I'm calling for a bounce up to 70.10 over the next couple months.
First off, the big issue weighing on EQR is rising rates, but I think the Fed is basically done tightening and that storm is passing. Once investors get even a whiff of rate cuts, the whole apartment REIT sector should get a tailwind. EQR owns urban infill assets in supply-constrained markets think big coastal cities where you're not going to see a ton of new construction. That pricing power matters way more than people are giving it credit for, especially with the rental vacancy rate near all-time lows.
The one thing that could throw a wrench in this is if we get an actual recession and unemployment spikes. If people can't pay rent, it doesn't matter how nice your buildings are. But job numbers are still solid for now, and lease demand hasn't really cracked. Plus, EQR's balance sheet is in good shape, so they're not in danger of getting squeezed by higher debt service costs if things do get choppy.
Earnings are coming up, and management has a real shot to guide higher on NOI and cash flow if rent growth holds up. That could spark a mini-squeeze on anyone still short or underweight. So yeah, maybe I'm lucky or just early, but I'm betting EQR snaps back to the low 70s before the end of summer.
