Bullish UPS thesis by tomtrades

UPS - United Parcel Service Inc - Class B - Industrials

Alright, someone explain to me how UPS can yo yo so hard and still be boring enough to make your dentist jealous. Look at this: a year ago UPS was chilling above 110, then August comes around and boom, faceplants sub 90. I thought brown was supposed to deliver consistency, but nah, this chart is a rollercoaster they forgot to take down after Halloween.

I’m bullish here, even if it hurts to say it as a certified package tracking addict. We just had a nasty dump to the mid 80s in late summer, and since then UPS has shown it can bounce see how it clawed its way back to 115 before March earnings whacked us back to reality. That kind of violence means one thing: shorts got comfy, and now they’re probably sweating in brown shorts. My target: 110.00. Not mooning, but enough to make you feel smart for grabbing rerouted packages.

Why bet the brown truck? Earnings should get less ugly as fuel costs keep sliding and Amazon takes a breather on eating everybody’s lunch. Also, dividend chads are lurking everywhere under 100. They can’t resist yield, especially when bonds are for boomers. Last spike to 116 was probably FOMO, but anything under 100 is just asking for another squeeze if volume picks up or guidance isn’t a dumpster fire.

Obvious risk: UPS keeps dropping guidance or announces another pricing war. If ecommerce slows or labor drama comes back, you’re bagholding yourself into next year. So maybe not diamond hands, just paper strong for now. Next earnings call is the big show if they guide above consensus, we’re probably getting a package delivered straight to 110 and shorts can sign for it.

Bullish

Created Apr 2, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$98.18

Above

$110.00

Target Date

May 28, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Apr 8, 2026 · 14:55

Honestly, I get what you mean about UPS being way choppier than people think. I’m with you on the idea it’s probably got some upside at these prices, but I’d still keep an eye on their labor costs and those weak shipping volumes lately. Feels like a trade you need patience for, not expecting fireworks. Boring is ok if it pays, just don’t expect a straight line up.

Apr 13, 2026 · 13:31

UPS always looks safer than it actually is. That chart whiplash makes me nervous even if the price right now feels like a bargain. I get the bullish angle after the latest dump, but I’d want to see some sign volumes are stabilizing before jumping in. These “boring” stocks have a way of quietly bleeding for ages. Guess I’m just not in a rush here.

Apr 15, 2026 · 00:58

UPS is weirdly volatile for a stock everyone assumes is just grandpa’s div play. I get betting on the bounce after that sub 90 faceplant though, especially since everyone’s already scared off. As long as they don’t botch another quarter, your $110 target doesn’t seem nutty.

Apr 15, 2026 · 13:03

Bro, UPS out here tricking people into thinking it’s a snoozefest and then hitting them with chart moves like it’s training for X Games. I’m with you, this last faceplant set it up for a revenge arc but man, package stocks got more drama than my ex’s DMs. Betting it crawls back over 110 sounds reasonable if people stop panic selling every headline.

Apr 15, 2026 · 13:27

UPS does have that weird double life: everyone calls it steady but then it drops 15 bucks in a month like it’s bored. I think you’re right on the bounce setup after the summer dunk, though. Dividend’s still there, pricing looks low versus history, and the “boring” narrative means most folks just sleep on these moves. Timing isn’t obvious but under 100 does seem like a gift, honestly.

Apr 16, 2026 · 13:20

Can’t argue that UPS looks tempting under 100, but those swings aren’t just noise they actually kinda freak me out for what’s supposed to be a “safe” stock. I’d want to see less chart drama before getting fully comfy long term. Still, if it stabilizes like it usually does after these random dumps, your entry could age well. Just not trusting the “boring” narrative here anymore.