Okay this ESTC chart is an absolute car crash. Not even a slow bleed, more like someone drove it off a cliff from 92+ last summer to hanging under 50. That’s ugly. But you know what? I’m calling bottom. There’s too much doom in this tape and it’s time to pounce.
Elastic’s tech is still mission critical for a ton of enterprises and dev teams. Just because growth got punched in the mouth doesn’t mean the story is dead. This is classic market overkill: they whiffed a guide, yes, but the sticky recurring revenue and potential to cross sell new observability features are still very real. Fat margins aren’t going away. I see the risk/reward setup as lopsided at 47.51.
I’m not saying it magically bounces back to 80 overnight, but a snapback to 56.50 is in play as soon as the company posts one decent quarter with growth stabilizing. It’s all about the next earnings that’s the catalyst. If they even hint at re accelerating customer adds or show a respectable pipeline, shorts will scramble. You want to get in before the herd wakes up.
Look, the main risk is a second bad quarter. If they miss again or guide down, I can see another leg lower (maybe mid 30s, yikes). But I’m not betting on that. I think the sellers are exhausted and the risk/reward here is just too juicy to ignore for a punchy swing.
Just look at what OXY has pulled off over the last year. This thing was trading at 37.67 about a year ago, slept in the low 40s for months, and then started exploding higher in March. Now we're sitting at 57.97 and honestly, that uptrend feels like momentum that's just begging to follow through. Oil names love to move in packs and Occidental is finally getting the respect it missed for too long.
If they drop another solid quarter and oil holds above 80, this stock is going to rip. Buffett’s been loading the boat, and while I hate hanging my hat on the Oracle’s leftovers, his conviction usually means something real is happening. OXY has been aggressively paying down debt and their cash flow is finally back in fighting shape, so the balance sheet risk is way less ugly than it used to be. I’m calling a target price of 69.50 in the next 8 weeks. That’s not even a blue sky scenario, just a continuation of this run and a little multiple juice if crude stays firm.
Here’s the risk: OXY lives and dies by crude pricing. If the Saudis pivot or there’s some weird macro shock, this could unwind fast. And if management decides to get cute and overpay for more assets, that could kill sentiment instantly.
Earnings are the next big catalyst here. With how OXY has lagged behind XOM and CVX for way too long, even an average report could spark more catch up buying. I’m not waiting for a perfect entry, the momentum speaks for itself. 69.50 or bust.
PINS has been trashed. Just look at this chart: basically a six month ski slope, topping out near 38 and sliding all the way down to 18. It’s ugly don’t care how you slice it. But that’s the setup I want. When retail taps out and momentum shorts pile in, you get these gross looking bases that set up the best snapback rallies.
At 18.20, I’m calling bottom. Q1 earnings will be the real test, but I’m not waiting for a perfect setup. The stock is already down over 50 percent from its summer highs, and the business hasn’t fundamentally broken. Ad spending is cyclic and management already cut the growth guide, but no way does this stay below 22.00 if they even hint at stabilization. My target: 22.00. That’s a quick 3.80 move from here.
Everyone’s panicking about the ad market, sure, but PINS still pulls solid engagement and isn’t facing existential threats like some other social platforms. User growth has actually been holding up, and the Street’s been hammering them for margins that have room to bounce back once the easy comps hit. Plus I’d bet on some activist chatter or M&A rumor if this keeps trading like a penny stock.
I’m not blind to the risk. If they miss next quarter again or guide down (again), it could be another leg lower, fast. But at these levels, sentiment is nuclear winter bad and short term pain is already on the tape. The next catalyst is that Q1 report any sign of stabilization and this rips.
CI has been thrown into the grinder lately. Just look at the chart this thing got absolutely crushed from the 330s in May all the way down to 258 in November. That's a faceplant. But the bounce off those lows and the recent chop around the high 260s and 270s sets up an opportunity I'm not passing on.
Here's the deal: the market got way too spooked over managed care margin pressure and lost sight of the core earnings machine. CI's pharmacy benefit segment is still a juggernaut. Membership hasn't fallen off a cliff. If they give even a whiff of margin stabilization or announce a buyback ramp at the next earnings print, this rerates fast. My target is 315.00, which is right around the August bounce back zone and totally doable with a modest multiple recovery.
Yeah, I know, everyone is sweating regulatory noise and Medicare mix. Fine, that's the risk. If CMS cracks down harder than expected, the stock will get tagged again. But that's already partly priced in after this multi month slide, and sentiment here is as washed out as it gets for a name this solid.
Earnings in a few weeks are the obvious spark. If CI shows even stable outlook or guides up costs, shorts will scramble. I'm not saying it's risk free, but I am saying the snapback potential is huge. Sitting here at 265.87, it's worth swinging for 315.00.
Alright, enough with the sympathy for General Mills (GIS). The chart's ugly, sure—just look at the last 12 months, it's been one long trip down the chute from $58+ to where we are now ($37.36). That’s a complete sentiment collapse, and honestly, it’s overdone. I’m calling for a snapback to $44.80 in the next couple months. That’s not pie-in-the-sky—just a partial mean reversion.
Earnings are the near-term catalyst here. The street's pricing GIS like it’s going out of business, but these guys have a sticky, defensive portfolio and are still throwing off cash. Consumer staples are cyclical, but not that cyclical—people aren’t going to quit buying cereal and snacks. Volatility like this is usually how bottoms get made, especially with all the “dead money” talk swirling.
There’s a risk that they whiff again on margins if inflation flares up this summer, and yeah, maybe the multiple stays compressed for a while if rates don’t move. Fine, but at this price, most of that pain is in the stock already. The risk/reward is finally skewed the right way. If there’s even a whiff of a beat or a hint of stabilization, funds are going to rotate back in fast.
I’m not here to baghold for a year, but for the next 8 weeks, this is a no-brainer bounce play. You can argue it’ll just keep drifting—go ahead. My money’s on a sharp reversal.
This price action on MSCI lately has been wild. It's bounced all over the place the last year just in the last few months, we've seen it drop into the low 530s, rip up to 590, then back down to the mid-550s where it's hanging now. All that volatility is a dream setup if you're trading momentum and looking for the next leg higher.
I'm bullish here and aiming for 667.10 within the next 10 weeks. The core driver is the sticky, recurring revenue MSCI pulls from their institutional client base. Indexing and analytics aren't going anywhere, and every time the market shakes, asset managers are relying on MSCI's platforms even more. The company keeps rolling out new ESG and climate products too, which is drawing in fresh mandates from funds that need to tick those regulatory boxes. That's a structural tailwind that's not priced in enough.
The risk is that valuation is steep no getting around it, these guys trade at a premium because of the quality of earnings and market position. If there's a macro correction or clients start tightening budgets, you could see a swift retracement. But so far, every dip is getting bought and the support around 530-540 has held multiple times over the last year.
The big near-term catalyst is next quarter's earnings. If MSCI delivers another solid beat, especially on subscription growth or ESG uptake, this thing could get rerated fast. I want to be in before the crowd starts chasing it again. I'm riding the trend as long as it's working and right now, the momentum is still alive.
This chart is exactly what momentum traders dream about. AFL dipped to the high 90s back in August, but since then it's been grinding up, making higher lows and higher highs almost every month. Every time it looks like it might roll over, buyers step in and push it right back near the top of its range. You can see the resilience after the October lows, and the recent move through 113 in February just confirms that the bulls are running this tape.
I think there's more juice left in this run. The company's core business is still cranking out solid earnings, and with rates staying elevated, their investment portfolio is throwing off better yield than people give credit for. AFL's underwriting discipline is kind of legendary in the insurance space it's not the sexiest story, but it means steady margins while some competitors are still cleaning up messes from two years ago. That stability is catching eyes as the market starts to rotate into more defensive names, and you can see it in the steady climb the last six months.
The risk, honestly, is that the stock is getting a little stretched versus its historical valuations. If there's an earnings miss or some macro hiccup that sends financials lower, AFL could retrace quickly. Still, it feels like there's enough momentum and sector support that any dip is more likely to be bought than create a real breakdown.
I'm looking for a quick move to 128.21 over the next six weeks, especially if the next earnings call comes out clean. All it takes is one strong quarter or a hint of capital return (buyback, dividend raise) for this to break out and run. If that happens, those waiting for a perfect entry will just be chasing candles.
This VLO move is wild. Literally less than a year ago this thing was trading around 133 and chopping sideways, then it went full rocket mode over the last six months. You can see from the price action after dipping near 107 last April, it steadily clawed back, then started going vertical after November. Now we're sitting at 230.59 and it actually feels like the momentum hasn't run its course.
The setup is all about refining margins staying elevated thanks to tight supply and refinery outages. Crack spreads haven't shown any signs of rolling over, and summer driving season is almost here. People keep underestimating how sticky the demand for gasoline and diesel is, even in a soft landing scenario. Plus, VLO's operational leverage means that every extra dollar in margin drops straight to the bottom line. The last couple earnings reports were beat-and-raise specials, and institutions have been chasing it ever since.
I'm not pretending this isn't extended. The main risk is obviously a reversal if oil prices drop hard, or if broader energy equities take a breather after this insane run. But from a pure trend perspective, this is still the strongest chart in the refining sector right now. If you wait for a perfect entry you'll miss the move. The real catalyst? Next month's earnings. Management has been sandbagging guidance, so if they post another monster quarter, shorts are gonna get steamrolled.
I'm calling 263.88 as a target over the next 6 weeks. As long as the crack spread data doesn't collapse, this has more room to run.
This COST chart is a rollercoaster but I actually love the setup here. After cratering to the low 860s back in December, it's rebounded hard and just ripped through the 1000 level last month before pulling back a bit. We're sitting just under those highs now and it feels like the momentum play is back on. Every dip under 980 gets bought up lightning fast, and the last few weeks have basically been a sideways coil. Feels like it's setting up for another leg higher.
Costco isn't just a defensive retail name anymore, it's a legit growth machine with membership renewal rates that are basically bulletproof. The fact that they're still finding ways to expand margins even with inflation and wage pressure is wild. Last quarter's same-store sales numbers were strong, especially in food and consumables, and that's the sticky stuff that keeps people coming back. I think people underestimate how much pricing power Costco has as long as they keep delivering value to members.
The risk here is that we're trading at a historically rich multiple, so if earnings disappoint or comps slow down, there could be a quick air pocket. But I just don't see the thesis cracking before the next membership fee hike hits, which is the big upcoming catalyst. Historically, every time they do that, you get a wave of extra revenue and almost zero churn.
With that in mind, I'm playing for 1152.60 over the next 8 weeks. If the membership fee talk picks up and earnings hold up, I think we see a quick move past the recent highs. Momentum looks alive and well here.
EW just ripped from the low 70s to 87 in the last couple months, and I don't think this move is finished yet. Normally I'd be wary jumping in after a run like that, but the way it's been grinding higher off that March low is telling me there's real accumulation underneath. A few weeks of consolidation, and now we're seeing higher highs again. The uptrend is alive and well.
Momentum aside, the underlying story matters too: the structural tailwinds for transcatheter heart valve procedures are strong, and EW basically dominates this space. Procedure volumes are growing, and hospitals aren't going to slow-roll new tech that saves them money and improves patient outcomes. Management keeps raising guidance, which doesn't happen unless they see visibility into demand. That's exactly what you want as this thing keeps stair-stepping up.
I'm watching the upcoming earnings call as the main catalyst here. If they deliver another beat or raise, the technicals line up for another breakout. The risk is that valuation is looking a bit stretched in the short term, and if they guide soft, we could see a pullback. But with this much momentum behind it, buyers just keep stepping in on every tiny dip.
I see this pushing to 101.10 in the next ten weeks, barring any macro rug pulls. There's going to be volatility, but if the trend holds, momentum chasers are going to keep piling in. I'm riding it until the tape says otherwise.
