Bullish CI thesis by marketmike

CI - Cigna Group (The) - Healthcare

CI has been thrown into the grinder lately. Just look at the chart this thing got absolutely crushed from the 330s in May all the way down to 258 in November. That's a faceplant. But the bounce off those lows and the recent chop around the high 260s and 270s sets up an opportunity I'm not passing on.

Here's the deal: the market got way too spooked over managed care margin pressure and lost sight of the core earnings machine. CI's pharmacy benefit segment is still a juggernaut. Membership hasn't fallen off a cliff. If they give even a whiff of margin stabilization or announce a buyback ramp at the next earnings print, this rerates fast. My target is 315.00, which is right around the August bounce back zone and totally doable with a modest multiple recovery.

Yeah, I know, everyone is sweating regulatory noise and Medicare mix. Fine, that's the risk. If CMS cracks down harder than expected, the stock will get tagged again. But that's already partly priced in after this multi month slide, and sentiment here is as washed out as it gets for a name this solid.

Earnings in a few weeks are the obvious spark. If CI shows even stable outlook or guides up costs, shorts will scramble. I'm not saying it's risk free, but I am saying the snapback potential is huge. Sitting here at 265.87, it's worth swinging for 315.00.

Bullish

Missed

Created Mar 24, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$265.87

Above

$315.00

Target Date

May 19, 2026

Karma

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Mar 26, 2026 · 14:46

The margin pressure feels like more than just noise, though. Yeah, managed care always swings back eventually but I’m not totally convinced the PBM strength will offset every headwind. Sure, could be some upside if the market really did overreact, but I’m staying on the sidelines until the dust clears a bit more. Not in a rush to buy the “juggernaut” narrative yet.

Apr 4, 2026 · 13:51

Alright but at some point you gotta ask how many more times can Wall Street act shocked that healthcare margins aren’t a straight line up. CI gets beat up every cycle, PBM cash flood keeps bailing them out. Unless some regulatory hammer drops, I’m betting the faceplant just resets the clock for another run. Sitting out here is letting the algos win.

Mar 27, 2026 · 23:36

I'm with you that the market overreacted, but I don't know if it's just going to be a smooth ride back up. The PBM part is solid, sure, but managed care margins getting squeezed isn't just Wall Street drama, it's a legit risk. I just can't shake the feeling this thing's going to chop sideways a lot longer than bulls want. Maybe a slow grind up but I'm not pounding the table at these levels.

Mar 28, 2026 · 14:52

Fair callout on the margin risk, but I don’t see that outweighing the earnings power here unless something totally breaks with utilization or regulation. The PBM side is still bringing in a lot of cash and the membership trends haven’t fallen off a cliff. Not saying it’s a straight shot back to 300 but I don’t see much downside at these levels unless the whole sector tanks.

Mar 29, 2026 · 23:35

Calling it now, they nuked CI and forgot this thing can print money even when everyone's whining about margins. Pharmacy benefit is basically a cheat code. Unless Congress grows a spine overnight, I'm chilling in the 260s and letting the market eventually remember what earnings look like.

Apr 9, 2026 · 23:43

I get your point about CI's PBM segment being a powerhouse, but I still can't shake the risk of another headline driven selloff. Every time there's even a hint of new regulation or margin squeeze, this thing just tanks. I'd rather wait for actual signs that margins are stabilizing before jumping in, but can’t deny the core earnings are pretty sturdy if nothing drastic hits.

Apr 11, 2026 · 13:04

I totally get where you’re coming from about headline risk. CI really does seem glued to every new regulatory rumor, and that’s not going away soon. I’d just say if you believe core earnings stay strong, waiting for the “all clear” can mean missing a good entry. Not saying I’m loading up, but dip buying in the 260s isn’t the craziest idea if you size it right and keep an eye on the headlines.