Been eyeing GPN lately and can't help but notice how choppy the past year has been. The swings have not inspired much confidence. Just in the last twelve months, we saw it head from the low 70s to the high 80s, then tumble back down below where it started. That says something about how fragile sentiment is here, especially after that steep drop into April.
I’m leaning bearish for the next few months. My target is 60.00. I’m not seeing convincing stabilization in the business, and the bounce attempts haven’t stuck. If anything, the last few months have been lower highs and lower lows overall. There’s also a lot of execution risk with management every time they look poised for a turnaround, they end up missing a quarter or two, which rattles people and pushes the stock down again.
Competition isn’t getting any easier either, and I’m worried that GPN is struggling to differentiate its core offerings. There’s always some news about new fintech players moving in on their turf, and that just keeps a lid on any real multiple expansion. If inflation pops up or consumer spending slows, the story could get worse.
The main thing I’ll be watching for is next quarter’s report. If they can finally show some clean growth and margin improvement, the story could change. But right now, I just don’t see a sustainable rebound coming together. If they disappoint again, I don’t think investors will give them much benefit of the doubt this time around.
PH has been a real workhorse looking at the past year. The climb from around 568 to almost 970 was not what I expected twelve months ago. Lately though, after peaking over 1000, it's cooled off and dipped closer to 913 before coming back a bit. That’s a huge run and I get the appeal, but it makes me a little uneasy about chasing up here.
My take is mildly bullish, with a target at 1045.00. I see room for another leg up, just not at the same pace we’ve seen. There’s still strong demand in its end markets, and PH’s execution has been impressive, especially around margins and order book strength. One thing I appreciate is their discipline on costs, and the integration of recent acquisitions seems to be moving smoothly so far which could still drive upside.
What gives me pause is the valuation. The multiple is stretched compared to historic averages for this industry, and after such a steep run, I can’t shake the thought that expectations are getting high. Any slip especially a guide down or slowdown in orders could knock the stock back quickly. Supply chain risks haven’t disappeared entirely either.
The next couple of quarters are the big catalyst for me. If management delivers another beat and raise, especially with industrial demand holding up, I think the market might reward PH with a higher ceiling. But I’m not sure I’d go all in at this level. I’d size this carefully and keep an eye on earnings for any cracks in the story.
Looking at INTU lately, I can’t ignore how wild the last year has been. From a high near 780 last summer to a pretty sharp fall all the way below 400 in February, then a bit of a bounce but never really reclaiming its old range. That’s a lot of volatility for what’s supposed to be a pretty steady blue chip tech. I’m leaning bearish here, or at least pretty skeptical that we get any fast recovery from this sort of chart.
The business itself isn’t broken people still need TurboTax and QuickBooks, and they’ve got a good lock on that software segment. But growth feels like it’s stalling out. Margins are okay, but not exceptional anymore, and with the IRS rolling out its free filing pilot, I think the market is getting more nervous about how defensible INTU’s bread and butter really is. That’s not a headline risk, it’s more of a slow drip, but it matters.
I’d put a target of 370.00 on this one for the next few months. That’s a little below where we are now, but I just don’t see a catalyst to get us back into the 600s or 700s anytime soon unless something fundamental changes. The one thing that could move the needle positively is a surprise earnings beat and a decent guide for fiscal Q4 if they somehow thread the needle on both user growth and margin protection, maybe you get some relief buying. But that’s a big "if" in this environment.
Main risk? Honestly, INTU has a huge installed base and sticky products, so if they throw out a massive buyback or the IRS stalls on its plans, you could get squeezed on a short. But from here, I’m just not seeing a ton of upside worth chasing.
NXPI's been on a wild ride these last twelve months. Glancing at the chart, you've got a pretty clear run from the 160s last spring, then that steady push upward to over 230 by January, before things cooled off. Then, kind of a whipsaw back down near 200 just this month. It's not dead money, but it's definitely been choppy, so I'm not about to call this an easy hold.
I'm leaning bullish but not by a mile. NXPI’s exposure to automotive and industrial chips is meaningful, and those segments should see some volume growth as inventory works itself out over the next couple quarters. Margins are decent, and they're buying back shares, so there’s some built in support under the stock at these levels. My target is 213.00, which feels fair given the last bounce off the lows and the resistance we've seen near 230. Nothing crazy.
The risk is pretty obvious: earnings volatility. One bad print or weak outlook from auto OEMs, and this thing could easily see another leg down just like it did a few months back. There’s a lot riding on end market recovery. If that stalls or management guides down, the stock could stall right along with it.
What might change the narrative? If NXPI puts up an unexpectedly strong quarter and raises guidance (not just holding serve), buyers are probably back. Until then, I’d size this as a trade, not a core position.
Looking at FTNT right now, feels like the market is still digesting that big drop back in August. The past year has been a ride, with that run up over 100 and then a pretty jarring fall to the mid 70s. Since then, it's been mostly stuck in this soft range between 75 and 85. Not exactly inspiring, but I don't see more big downside from here unless something dramatic happens in the next earnings call.
Cautiously bullish, but I'm not expecting fireworks. My target is 90.50. The company has a solid customer base, and network security isn't something that gets cut even if IT budgets get tighter. Their recurring revenue gives me some comfort too, since that's steady even if new growth slows down a bit. And last quarter, even though things looked mixed, the forward guidance wasn't a disaster.
If there's one risk that keeps me from sizing up, it's valuation. Even after the correction, it's not exactly cheap compared to other security names. If revenue growth slows any further, I could see it stalling out again. So, I wouldn't chase if the price suddenly spikes.
Next catalyst is their Q1 earnings in a few weeks. If they can show stabilization and keep their margins in line, this could crawl back to that 90+ range. But patience is kind of the move FTNT isn't likely to rocket, but it's also not going to implode barring a major shock. I'm fine holding as a smaller position in my portfolio for now.
Not sure I'm all that bullish on PM at this level. Looking at the price history over the last year or so, it's been on a bit of a rollercoaster ran up toward 187 in February, then slid back to the low 170s rather quickly. Now we're sitting at 163.87, which is still closer to the middle of that range. This sort of volatility isn't out of character for the stock, but it does make me more cautious on sizing up here.
I'd set a target price of 175.00. That's not shooting for the highs we saw a couple of months back, but it feels more reasonable given how quickly it fell last time it got up there. PM keeps churning out strong cash flow, and the dividend yield helps make the wait less painful. They're also still pushing the heated tobacco lines and expanding internationally, which actually might give them some upside if adoption doesn't stall. But with volumes in traditional tobacco continuing to decline, growth is going to be a grind.
My main concern is regulatory risk. Every year it feels like another government somewhere cracks down a little harder, and you never know when that news will hit the tape and smack the stock 5 percent out of nowhere. Still, if they can keep margins up and avoid any truly nasty headlines, I think it can drift back toward 175 in the next couple months. If they announce a buyback increase at the next earnings call, that could be the short term catalyst needed for a push higher.
This one's been absolutely pummeled in the last couple months down from the 200s to the low 150s now. It’s rare to see BDX drop this hard, but I think the market’s starting to price in more pessimism than is actually warranted. The setup here is interesting if you have some patience and aren’t expecting fireworks overnight.
BDX is still a core medical devices player with diversified revenue streams across diagnostics, medication management, and biosciences. Even with cost pressures, their hospital contracts and consumables remain sticky. I’m seeing a lot of concern over margin compression lately, especially after their recent guidance cut, but the underlying demand drivers aging demographics, recurring supply contracts, and a backlog that’s still clearing from last year are all intact. That’s not the kind of thing that just evaporates because a couple quarters go sideways.
Granted, the risk here is that management has a tendency to sandbag and then under-deliver, so a second guidance cut would hammer the shares further. But if you go back and look at the last few years, BDX has usually managed to stabilize margins after big resets. If they can put up even a modest beat on next quarter’s operating margins, I think we’ll see a relief rally. The next earnings print is the big catalyst, and if supply chain and margin trends show improvement, the rerating could be sharp.
I’m targeting 177.05 in the next 10 weeks. No need to get greedy, just betting on mean reversion and a little operational execution. Not a moonshot, but a solid risk/reward if you want some defensive healthcare exposure while the market’s jittery elsewhere.
PLD has had quite a run in the past year, grinding up from sub-100 lows last spring to hitting above 140 just a few weeks ago before pulling back to the 128 range. I think this is a textbook example of a quality REIT with a temporary overhang that’s masking its longer-term value. The logistics real estate space still has significant tailwinds even post-ecommerce boom, and Prologis is the category killer with scale no one else can match.
What makes me bullish here is the way PLD has been methodically growing funds from operations, not just by acquiring assets but through organic rent escalations. Their tenants are locked into long contracts, and with industrial space in high demand, renewals keep coming in at higher rates. The integration of recent acquisitions like Duke Realty is still playing out, but early numbers suggest synergies are coming in better than management guided initially. That gives me confidence in steady cash flow compounding ahead.
The one risk I’m watching is interest rates. If we get a surprise reacceleration of inflation or rates stay higher for longer, cap rates could move up and put some pressure on asset values. But PLD's balance sheet is in better shape than most low leverage, lots of fixed-rate debt, and ample liquidity give them room to maneuver even in a tougher macro.
The next quarterly results will be a catalyst, especially any updated guidance on rent growth and occupancy. If they reaffirm or lift outlook, I see this moving back to 152.34 over the next two months as the market refocuses on fundamentals over macro noise. At current levels, I think the risk-reward is skewed in favor of patient investors.
I've watched BAC grind up from the low 40s to the mid-50s over the last year, and it’s given back a chunk recently, now sitting at 46.83. With that pullback, I’m actually leaning bullish here, targeting 54.20 over the next couple months. The market’s been punishing the whole banking sector for macro worries, but fundamentally, Bank of America's core business just keeps chugging along.
The main thing that stands out is BAC's net interest income, which remains strong even as rate cut expectations have shifted around. They’ve managed their deposit base better than a lot of competitors, and loan growth is steady, not spectacular, but steady. The cost cutting initiatives that started last year are actually showing up in the numbers now, with expense ratios improving quarter by quarter. That matters because if the Fed finally does go into easing mode, BAC will still be able to crank out decent returns on equity instead of getting squeezed like some of the smaller banks.
The wild card is credit quality. If we get a hard landing, charge-offs could tick up, and while BAC’s loan book is diversified, it’s not immune. That’s a real risk, no question. But right now, delinquencies are still within historical norms, and the reserve build they did in 2023 gives them some cushion. I’m not ignoring the risk, just think it’s more than priced in given the recent pullback.
Next earnings are the near-term catalyst, especially if they show continued deposit stability and tame expense growth. If that comes through, I think we see 54.20 in the next 10 weeks. Not flashy, but for a big bank, that’s a pretty solid move.
I've been digging into PXD and it's clear this is a name that rewards patience. The company's asset base in the Permian is about as high quality as you can find, and their low-cost operations mean they can generate free cash flow even if oil prices stay moderate. This operational leverage is something that doesn't get enough attention, especially with the sector's history of capital inefficiency.
What makes PXD stand out to me is the disciplined capital return policy. Management's commitment to variable dividends and buybacks isn't just PR they've actually executed, distributing a significant portion of free cash back to shareholders while keeping leverage low. That's a big deal when a lot of peers are still over-leveraged or hesitant to reward investors. Also, the recent consolidation trend in oil and gas makes them either a potential acquirer or a target, and that kind of optionality doesn't show up in simple valuation screens.
The risk here is obviously tied to commodity prices. If WTI drops below $60 for a sustained period, cash flows can get pinched and the capital return story loses some of its shine. But their cost structure gives them more breathing room than most. I'm watching OPEC+ meetings as a near-term catalyst for any volatility in oil prices. If the market gets clarity on output, sentiment on PXD should improve.
Taking all this together, I think the fair value for PXD should be closer to 313.20 over the next 14 weeks if the macro backdrop holds up. I like the risk-reward at these levels, especially with the yield and the operational execution they've been showing.
