Glancing at ETN’s price swings over the past year, it’s almost hard not to get whiplash. We’ve had quite a rollercoaster from the low 320s to a recent peak above 410, with plenty of dips and recoveries in between. Right now it sits at 395.94, which is getting up near the top end of the recent range. I’m leaning cautiously bearish at this level, with a target of 356.00 over the next twelve weeks. The reason is pretty simple: the stock already seems priced for a lot of good news, and you can see from the chart that these recent pops tend to get sold down rather than break out.
One thing keeping me from turning outright negative is the company’s solid exposure to infrastructure upgrades. That’s still a real secular tailwind, and there’s a good argument that’s what has carried it through the worst of last year’s dip. If government spending or orders actually start to accelerate again, I could easily see this holding up better than some of its industrial peers.
But there’s a risk that expectations are just too high baked in here. Last earnings season, we saw a quick spike from 341 to over 400, but then sellers stepped in. I’m a little wary of another guide down or softer margin commentary in the next call, which could knock the stock back into the 350s. With that in mind, I’m setting my sights on 356.00 as a more comfortable level if things reset.
If there’s a reason to keep watching, it’s the upcoming quarterly update. Management has surprised before, and if they boost their full year guidance, that could change the setup quickly. But until then, I don’t see the risk/reward for new money here.
Not exactly the most exciting chart for SPLK lately. The price hasn't budged from 156.90 for months. Usually when you see a stock flatline like that it means the market is just waiting for some kind of resolution (or there's a deal in play). So I'm not looking at this as something with much near term upside.
If I had to pick a side, I'm leaning mildly bearish here with a target of 140.00. The main reason is just how stagnant things have been. If the buyout rumors or acquisition premium were real, we'd probably see more movement or at least a bit of volatility when new headlines pop up. Plus, their last couple quarters didn't really give anyone a compelling reason to get more bullish on their own business fundamentals.
Of course, the biggest risk here is that some actual strategic buyer does finally step up and closes a deal at a premium. That's always possible, and sitting short here is risky on that front. It's not a huge short for me, but I can't ignore that likelihood entirely.
What I'm really watching is the next earnings report. If they manage to show either a surprising reacceleration or announce a definitive acquisition, that would be enough to blow this thesis up. Until then, though, I'm expecting the price to drift lower. Not dramatic, just a mild fade unless something material changes.
Looking at ENTG here, I have to admit the price action over the past year gives me pause. It went from the high 60s last June to a strong rally above 140 by late April, which is a huge run for any stock in under twelve months. There have been some real whipsaws in there too dropped hard a few times before ripping to new highs, and now it's pulled back to around 135.73. That's a lot of volatility for what most would call a steady industry.
I'm leaning bearish at this price. My target is 120.00. The main thing is valuation after that kind of rally, ENTG is pricing in almost perfect execution for the next year or two. Their end markets aren't immune to cyclical demand shifts, and while management has executed well, I don't see enough new growth drivers to justify the current multiples. There’s always a risk that the market starts worrying about a top and de rates the stock even on a slight miss.
Two factors are holding me back from being more negative. First, semiconductors (and related suppliers like ENTG) have a clear long term runway, so this isn’t a hopeless short or anything. Second, the next earnings report could easily act as a catalyst in either direction. If they manage to post another "beat and raise," it's possible there’s another leg up. But honestly, that feels increasingly priced in and there’s little margin of safety here if things go sideways.
Biggest risk to my call? If demand stays stronger than I expect and margins hold up, I could be on the wrong side. I’m watching for any early signs of a guide down in the next quarterly update that would probably be the tipping point. For now I’d rather wait for a cheaper entry or more clarity.
Looking at CHWY right now, it's tough to ignore just how brutal the last year has been. From hovering near 47 last June, the stock has effectively been cut in half, now sitting at 25.54. That kind of steady decline suggests a lot of optimism has already drained out, so I’m not expecting any heroics in the short term.
Still, I’m leaning bearish down to a target of 21.00 over the next two months. The business just keeps running into the same walls: customer growth is flat, and they’re spending heavily to keep existing buyers engaged. Even when management tries to highlight operational improvements, it hasn’t translated into a healthier bottom line. These price levels might tempt some to call a bottom, but the chart keeps making lower lows, and I think there’s more pain before any sort of recovery trade sets up.
The main risk here is that CHWY could get a sharp pop if they announce a deal or show real progress on margin expansion maybe they surprise next earnings, or some acquisition rumor hits. With sentiment already this low, any real positive could force a squeeze, so you have to respect that possibility.
For now, I’m watching earnings next month as the key catalyst. If numbers disappoint again or guidance gets trimmed, I think we’ll see another leg down. I’m not eager to short this at the lows, but I don’t see a compelling reason to step in as a buyer until the bleeding stops. Just too many unknowns with the business model and the consumer right now.
SPOT's chart from the past year is a bit of a rollercoaster. The stock touched highs above 760 back last summer, but since then there’s been a pretty steady trend down, with a couple jagged bounces that failed to hold. Lately it’s been scraping around the low 500s, even dipping under 430 at one point before recovering. To me, that says the momentum crowd bailed but there’s still a floor of buyers who see value.
I’m leaning cautiously bullish here, targeting 590.00. That’s about 14 percent from today’s 516.71. Mostly, I think the pressure has been overdone. Podcasts are stabilizing, music margins are creeping up, and SPOT keeps rolling out price increases with surprisingly little churn. I don’t see it rocketing back to last year’s highs, but I do see room for a measured bounce as investors get more comfortable with its recurring revenue streams.
Biggest risk is another guide down, whether from slower user growth or a miss on premium subs. SPOT has had a habit of talking up its long term potential but then stumbling on the near term numbers. If that happens again, it could mean more pain.
I’d keep an eye on their next earnings call. If they show even incremental progress on profitability or signal another round of subscription hikes, I think the market will notice. But I wouldn’t back the truck up here. A starter position with space to add on dips makes more sense to me than going all in.
Looking at ETSY around 60.89, I'm leaning modestly bullish but with some hesitation. The past year has been anything but smooth quick glances at the chart show a wild ride. Last fall it was up in the low 70s, only to crater under 50 by March, and now we're hovering just above where we started last summer. Swings like that give me pause, but also make me think we're not pricing in much optimism here.
My base case is a move to 71.00 in the next few months. That number lines up with last October's highs, and it's achievable if management can show even a small return to stable gross merchandise sales growth. There are still a lot of niche sellers and loyal buyers sticking around the platform despite all the macro handwringing, and the company has trimmed some costs so maybe margins can get a small boost from here. I wouldn't bet the house, but if consumer spending holds up and ETSY can put together one "beat and raise" quarter, I think the stock could get a rerating.
The risk here is that we're just caught in a value trap. ETSY keeps getting hit every time there's a recession scare, and if the economy rolls over or shopper habits keep shifting to big box online, then this could be dead money for a while. There's real competition out there, and buyers are more price sensitive than ever.
The next earnings call is a real catalyst, especially if they guide Q3 revenue higher or hint at some new buyer acquisition strategies. That's what could finally push us toward that 71.00 target but until then, I'd size this carefully and have an exit plan if things sour.
Anyone looking at MELI recently is probably feeling a bit whiplashed. The stock was trading north of 2500 less than a year ago, and since then it's been grinding lower in pretty clear stages. Even with the recent bounce to about 1870, that's off a major slide since last fall. It feels like the market is still digesting some combination of macro worries and concern about competition in Latin America.
I'm taking a cautious stance. MELI still has a clear lead in e commerce and fintech across Latin America, and that kind of network effect doesn't evaporate overnight. Their fintech business in particular has been quietly growing, and if management keeps pulling off double digit revenue growth in that segment, I think the stock can recover some lost ground. That said, I'm only targeting a move to 1900.00 from the current 1585.91. The path up looks much slower from here, especially if we're in a higher for longer rates regime that keeps pressuring high multiple tech.
Main risk is that the competitive pressures from regional and global players (think Amazon, Nubank etc.) do start to chip away at MELI's dominance, and the market punishes any slip in their top line. If they guide down, it's going to hurt, and nobody's going to step in to save the day in this tape. Also, the stock could just keep dead money vibes for a while if macro stays choppy.
Catalyst wise, I'll be watching for their next earnings. If MELI can deliver a beat on marketplace growth and keep margins stable, the narrative could shift back in their favor, at least enough for a sentiment swing. But I'm not rushing in heavy given the trend and the macro setup here.
EQT's chart honestly gives me a bit of pause right now. Over the past year, it's ranged from the high 40s to the mid 60s with a few sharp swings up and down. For every pop above 60, like in March, it seems to drop back to the mid 50s not long after. Makes it tough to feel super confident leaning in hard at this level, since it's sitting at 56.22 as of now and has gone basically nowhere net in a year despite all that movement. Volatility is there, but there’s not a convincing trend up or down.
I’m overall neutral to slightly bearish here. My target is 50.50, which is about 10% lower than where we are now. Natural gas prices just haven’t shown much strength lately, and EQT’s earnings are pretty tied to that cycle. Sure, they’ve cut costs and tried some hedging, but that only gets you so far if the underlying commodity keeps getting hammered. Plus, there’s persistent concern about oversupply in the US market (Marcellus in particular) and the export story hasn’t played out as fast as bulls hoped.
That said, I’m not saying this is a disaster. The biggest risk to short term downside is just a surprise move in nat gas pricing any cold snap or geopolitical event could throw off my call quickly. Also, management has kept a reasonable balance sheet, so it’s not like the company is in distress. If anything, a steady dividend and some opportunistic buybacks could limit the downside. But I don’t see a clear near term catalyst to break the stock out higher maybe Q2 production guidance, but unless it's a big beat I’m not expecting fireworks.
So, I’m sitting on the sidelines or maybe trimming a bit until there’s more clarity on the demand side for natural gas. If EQT can show evidence of better pricing power or a material shift in export trends, I’d consider getting constructive again. Until then, I think 50.50 is a likely retest in the next few months.
If you've been watching TTD over the past year, it's honestly looked like a slow motion train wreck. This thing peaked last summer near 85 and has been bleeding out ever since. The drop from August’s high to today’s 21 ish level is pretty brutal, and even the occasional bounce like that small pop into the new year didn’t have much staying power. I can't ignore that kind of waterfall; momentum is still against it for now.
Still, I'm not outright bearish at this price. The core business does have real staying power, especially with digital ad budgets stabilizing (even if they're not growing as fast as the glory days). TTD has avoided the worst outcomes, shoring up some customer churn and managing costs. If the market gives it a little breathing room, I think a recovery towards 25.00 over the next few months is pretty reasonable nothing flashy, but not dead money either.
The caveat is that if digital ad demand rolls over again, or if a larger player decides to take a more aggressive stance, TTD could revisit new lows. There’s also the psychological side; after a 75 percent plus drawdown in less than a year, you do get a lot of bagholders looking to exit on every bounce.
The main thing I’m watching is quarterly results, obviously. If they can deliver a clean beat and guide even modestly higher, that could finally reset sentiment. I'm not jumping in big here, but I’ll nibble and see if we get that catalyst. Targeting 25.00 for now close to a 20 percent upside in a few weeks if nerves settle.
DD has had a pretty rough year if you look at the chart. That massive drop in November (from the high 70s and low 80s straight down to the high 30s) basically wiped out a ton of value overnight. Since then it’s been crawling back, but every time it looks like there’s some momentum, it fizzles around the mid to high 40s. At $48.36 right now, that’s actually a little above where it’s been stuck for months still a long way off the highs.
I’m leaning bearish here. There’s too much structural uncertainty for me to feel comfortable. The company still hasn’t really explained the causes behind that huge autumn drop. It spooked a lot of holders and I’m not seeing much in the way of new confidence or institutional buying showing up. Plus, the bounces seem pretty weak, more like short covering than actual investor conviction. If they can’t put out solid guidance or show some turnaround in the next quarter, the price could easily drift back down to the low 40s.
I’m targeting $41.00 within the next 8 weeks. That lines up with where the stock briefly stabilized in December and January, and I think it’ll revisit that range if there’s another earnings miss or weak outlook. I know some are calling this oversold, but given the lack of a clear management plan and the memory of that big drop, I’m not expecting a sharp recovery.
One risk here is if there’s some kind of unexpected good news like a big asset sale or an activist stepping in. That could change the story fast. But barring that, I just don’t trust the current uptrend to stick, especially with macro headwinds still a factor. Next earnings will be the catalyst to watch, and if the numbers don’t impress, it could be a rough ride for anyone chasing this latest bounce.
