Bearish CHWY thesis by anna_invests

CHWY - Chewy Inc - Class A - Consumer Cyclical

Looking at CHWY right now, it's tough to ignore just how brutal the last year has been. From hovering near 47 last June, the stock has effectively been cut in half, now sitting at 25.54. That kind of steady decline suggests a lot of optimism has already drained out, so I’m not expecting any heroics in the short term.

Still, I’m leaning bearish down to a target of 21.00 over the next two months. The business just keeps running into the same walls: customer growth is flat, and they’re spending heavily to keep existing buyers engaged. Even when management tries to highlight operational improvements, it hasn’t translated into a healthier bottom line. These price levels might tempt some to call a bottom, but the chart keeps making lower lows, and I think there’s more pain before any sort of recovery trade sets up.

The main risk here is that CHWY could get a sharp pop if they announce a deal or show real progress on margin expansion maybe they surprise next earnings, or some acquisition rumor hits. With sentiment already this low, any real positive could force a squeeze, so you have to respect that possibility.

For now, I’m watching earnings next month as the key catalyst. If numbers disappoint again or guidance gets trimmed, I think we’ll see another leg down. I’m not eager to short this at the lows, but I don’t see a compelling reason to step in as a buyer until the bleeding stops. Just too many unknowns with the business model and the consumer right now.

Bearish

Open

Created May 31, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$25.54

Below

$21.00

Target Date

Jul 26, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

Jun 2, 2026 · 14:43

Flat customer growth and blowing cash isn’t gonna save CHWY, especially when folks are pulling back on random pet swag. That 21 target feels reasonable unless they pull some magic new revenue outta their hat. Just looks like a slow bleed.

Jun 4, 2026 · 13:37

Seriously though, unless CHWY starts selling dog NFTs or invents cat food made of gold, I don’t see a bounce either. Customer growth flatlines harder than a goldfish funeral and they keep lighting cash on fire. 21 might be generous if this keeps up.

Jun 3, 2026 · 13:48

Hard to argue with this after they’ve struggled to get new users and keep spending like it’s 2021. If they can’t flip customer numbers or show a path to profit, I don’t see a big bounce either. All the retail cuts lately probably sting too. I’d just be careful shorting something that’s already down this much but yeah, 21 isn’t wild.

Jun 3, 2026 · 23:50

Flat is flat. If you can’t grow users and every earnings call is just more hand waving about investing in future loyalty, the market’s not gonna reward that. Probably some support around 20 but unless they change the playbook, I get the bear case. I’d wait for an actual sign of a turnaround before considering a long here.

Jun 6, 2026 · 22:35

Pretty hard to argue for upside here when customer growth is just stalled and they're still burning through money. The hope for some spark just isn't showing up in the numbers lately. At this point, I’d need to see a real turnaround before even thinking about going long feels like 21 is actually pretty fair if nothing changes.

Jun 8, 2026 · 00:53

Burn rate is a huge red flag for me too. Every quarter it’s just more of the same: flat users and no sign of actual profits. Maybe there’s a floor somewhere but I don’t see how they turn this around unless something drastic changes. I’d rather sit out than try to catch a bottom here.

Jun 8, 2026 · 22:30

Honestly pretty hard to see a bounce with the way CHWY keeps burning cash and not bringing in new customers. The drop from 47 to 25 kind of speaks for itself. I don’t know if it hits 21 that fast but with no growth and no path to profits, I don’t see the bull case either.

Jun 9, 2026 · 00:03

I get the bearish call, but part of me wonders if all the pain is somewhat baked in already. The steady slide from 47 hurts, sure, but sometimes these things find a grudging floor just from exhausted sellers. Still, until they show any real sign of new customers, I don’t see what’s supposed to change the story. Not excited to try catching this knife.