HCA has had a wild ride over the past year. It went from the high 370s last summer, surged to over 530 in March, and now it's pulled back hard to the 390s. That run up from fall through winter was intense, and honestly, it felt a little overextended. Now it's dropped almost 25 percent from the highs and is sitting way closer to where it was a year ago. This kind of move in a giant like HCA does catch my attention.

I'm bullish from here, but not looking for fireworks. My target is 453.00. I think most of the froth from the run up has come out, and we’re looking at a more reasonable entry. HCA’s core business is still solid. Hospital demand is steady, and the labor cost spikes that hit the sector in 2022 2023 have started to cool off. Margins should stabilize, and I expect some bounceback in volumes as elective procedures pick up pace again. They’ve also been buying back shares aggressively, which should help keep a floor under the stock.

The obvious risk is further weakness from here if the healthcare labor market tightens up again or if any regulatory drama crops up (always possible with hospital chains). Plus, the stock is not super cheap even after the pullback, so if there’s a macro scare, it could easily dip lower for a bit.

I’m watching next quarter’s earnings for a possible beat, especially if they guide for better cost control in the back half of the year. That could really get the ball rolling again. But short term, I’m not looking for HCA to go straight back to the highs, just a steady recovery as things normalize.