Looking at CVS right now, I'm leaning slightly bullish, but honestly not by much. The stock's had a pretty turbulent year, swinging from about 60 up to where it is now at 86.86. That last six months really stand out lots of chop between 60 and 80, but lately it's climbed back, and I don’t think it’ll run away from here. I’m setting my target at 95.00 in the next four to five months. It’s a modest upside, nothing wild.
The main thing keeping me interested is their broad reach in healthcare, especially with the mix of retail, pharmacy benefit management, and insurance. Even in a tough macro, those segments should provide some cushion. The company’s cost cutting efforts have started to show up in recent quarters, helping stabilize earnings after some ugly misses last year. If they can keep expenses controlled, there’s a decent shot at steady improvement from here.
I’m cautious though. Competition is intense both from traditional pharmacy chains and bigger online players. The risk here is any slip up on reimbursement rates or regulatory pressure could knock this right back to where it was in early 2025. Also, the market has clearly been nervous before, judging by those big dips (like that drop to 60 in May).
The next big thing to watch is their Q2 report. If CVS can show consistent progress on margins and maybe guide a bit higher on full year earnings, that should push sentiment up enough to reach my 95.00 target. But I wouldn’t be shocked if it stalls out for a bit either the market’s still a little jittery around these old school healthcare names.