Bullish ALL thesis by danielcharts

ALL - Allstate Corp (The) - Financial Services

ALL has basically been bouncing up and down for a year, but mostly in this same range. You look at the last 12 months and it's hard to call this anything but a choppy sideways ride lots of swings but no real breakout or breakdown. That actually makes me more bullish right now, not less. I feel like there's a reset going on and buyers keep stepping in every time it dips under 200.

My target is 248.65, which is about 20 percent up from here. The main reasons: first, underwriting quality seems solid even with all the drama in property insurance these days. They're able to push through higher premiums and maintain retention, which is no small feat with everyone shopping their rates. Second, I think expense ratios have quietly improved, but the market hasn't really rewarded that yet. You could see margin expansion if they stay disciplined and don't chase unprofitable growth (big 'if', but recent quarters show a clear trend).

The risk for me is obviously weather. If another catastrophic hurricane season hits, ALL is gonna get smoked again and this whole thesis falls apart for a bit. That's just the price of betting on insurers. The positive catalyst I'm watching is the next earnings report if they beat and guide above the Street, I expect a sharp move up, since sentiment has been pretty lukewarm all year. If it doesn't play out after that, maybe time to move on and find something with more juice.

Bullish

Open

Created Jun 2, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$207.21

Above

$248.65

Target Date

Oct 6, 2026

Karma

111 to 16155

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

Jun 3, 2026 · 22:20

You're not wrong about the non stop chop, but just betting on a squeeze out of sheer boredom? Underwriting quality is fine, sure, but if that was enough, ALL would've ripped already. Feels like a lot of dead money for a while unless rates or weather disasters hand you a gift. I get the 248 target, but this one puts me to sleep.

Jun 6, 2026 · 00:43

Lol this is peak cope if your main bull case is "it hasn’t totally tanked so it must be ready to moon." Underwriting is solid but that alone isn’t the cheat code. Could be dead money for another year if the volume keeps snoozing. I’d need more than just a bunch of 200 dollar buyers to get hyped.

Jun 6, 2026 · 22:29

I get what you’re saying but the sideways grind does actually tell you something about where the floor is. If the only buyers were “bored” ones, you’d see cracks by now. There’s clearly some institutional money supporting ALL every time it dips near 200. Underwriting alone isn’t the whole story, but it definitely matters for stability in a sector that’s been shaky elsewhere. Not calling for a moonshot, just thinking the risk/reward is better than it looks on first glance.

Jun 6, 2026 · 13:59

I get the whole "buyers keep stepping in" angle but nothing in the last year makes me feel like the momentum is building for a big move. Solid underwriting isn’t a bad sign, just not sure it’s enough for a 20 percent pop, especially with rates where they are. I’d probably wait for some actual breakout before getting too excited. Chop can go on way longer than people expect.

Jun 8, 2026 · 13:56

Honestly I'm with the people saying the "sideways grind" isn't exactly screaming breakout soon. Solid underwriting helps, but that's baked in for a boring insurer like ALL. If you’re betting on the floor holding because of dip buyers, sure, but I’m not convinced that alone gets you to 248 without some real catalyst. At best it looks like cash parking to me.