Bullish DE thesis by longtermleo

DE - Deere & Company - Industrials

DE's chart is giving me some mixed feelings right now. For the first half of the year, it looked rough, consistently trending down from over 500 to below 470 at one point. Then the story flipped February saw a breakout well past 600, with a short lived spike up to 644 before it settled back in the high 500s. That bounce makes me a bit wary we could be looking at a double top situation, or at minimum, a lot of churn ahead.

Still, I lean cautiously bullish in the near term. The company should see some tailwinds from continued infrastructure demand and a decent crop season. Orders look steady even if they're not explosive, and there's not much sign of a collapse in ag spending. My view is the stock can claw its way up to 610.00 over the next couple months if things break right, which is just under 9% from here.

I'm not ignoring the big risks, though. If rates stay elevated or we get a weak macro print, I'd expect industrials like DE to get clipped fast. There's also some concern on inventory build if channel stuffing shows up in the next report, this could rewind quickly. I don't see much reason to back up the truck at this price, but if you want some exposure, scaling in slowly seems safest.

As for catalysts, watch how the upcoming earnings call handles guidance for the rest of the year. Any surprise uptick in orders or better margin commentary could be the nudge this needs to break out again. But I'm not betting on a runaway rally just a slow grind higher unless the tone really shifts.

Bullish

Open

Created May 22, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$560.46

Above

$610.00

Target Date

Aug 7, 2026

Karma

121 to 17160

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 22, 2026 · 23:53

I get what you mean about the chart looking choppy. That big spike up and then immediate fallback definitely makes me twitchy about a double top too. I think DE has some room to run long term but probably not without more volatility first. Cautiously bullish makes sense, just wouldn't expect a straight line to 610.

May 24, 2026 · 13:11

I get the hesitation. That February move was almost too much too fast and every time I see those double top setups the next few months are usually just a slog. But DE is still a beast long term so maybe just have to ride out the chop if you want that 610. Probably not going to be a straight line though.

May 26, 2026 · 13:27

Honestly if it’s a double top then I’ll just take my L and go farm something else. DE’s been in the penalty box before and somehow always gets bailed out by corn prices or government handouts. I’m not betting against it until the tractors start running on vibes alone. Let’s see if it pulls another fakeout.

May 27, 2026 · 23:07

I get why you’re hesitant, that February run felt almost overcooked and these double top patterns can drag out forever. At the same time, DE historically finds a way to climb back after ugly drawdowns, so I don’t hate a cautious long from here. Not expecting fireworks, but betting against them when things start to stabilize usually backfires.

May 29, 2026 · 23:49

“Cautiously bullish” on DE after that rollercoaster? Feels like trying to milk a tractor. If you think that spike was just a head fake, why even bother with this chopfest? I’d want a stronger reason than “historically finds a way” before I park cash in the penalty box, but hey, good luck riding that churn.

May 31, 2026 · 00:50

Honestly if DE is gonna double top and churn for months then I’ll just go long on corn futures instead. But every time people call this thing dead it crawls back out of the mud. That February rip looked unsustainable but I’m not betting against big green tractors making money in the end.

May 31, 2026 · 14:05

So you see the double top risk but still wanna ride this thing for another $50? Bold. That February rip looked straight up FOMO to me honestly, and now it’s just drifting. Unless DE pulls some surprise earnings magic or gets bailed out by ag prices, feels like you’re just paying to be stuck in tractor purgatory for a year. Good luck but I’ll wait for a real dip before touching this.