DE has been on a bit of a rollercoaster this past year. If you look at the chart, it was hanging out in the 460 510 range for months, dipped below 440 in October, then ripped up past 600 in February and March. Kind of wild. Right now we're sitting at 591.95. After that run up and a bit of recent cooling off, I see a chance for another leg higher, but it’s not risk free.

I’m bullish in the medium term with a target of 700.00. Main driver: DE’s core business in agriculture equipment is still strong and the last earnings showed demand holding up better than expected. There’s also some pent up replacement cycle happening lots of older equipment in the field so even if crop prices wobble, farmers have to upgrade. Margins improved slightly last quarter too, helped by easing supply chain costs.

I wouldn’t jump in with both feet here though. The risk is that the price already baked in a lot of optimism after that 600+ spike. If grain prices really fall off or if the economy stumbles, DE could slip back toward the 500s again. A negative outlook from management next quarter would definitely hurt.

The next earnings call should be interesting. If they maintain or raise guidance, I think we see another momentum push. If not, I might bail and wait for a better entry. For now, I’m sticking with my target and watching those ag demand signals closely.