Bullish CHWY thesis by danielcharts

CHWY - Chewy Inc - Class A - Consumer Cyclical

What a ride for CHWY over the past year. If you zoom out, this thing was trading up around 47 back in early June and just steadily bled almost every month since. Now it’s sitting at 25.54. The selloff was ruthless like, nearly a 50 percent haircut and I think we’re finally starting to see that flush slow down a bit.

I’m leaning bullish here, with a target of 29.90 in the next couple of months. Not some huge 10 bagger call, just a move back toward a more reasonable multiple if they can show even a hint of margin improvement and stabilization in active customer count. Pet spend isn’t exactly discretionary for a lot of people even with inflation hitting wallets, folks are still buying food and meds for their pets. CHWY has the logistics and inventory dialed in compared to a lot of smaller competitors, and they’re still top of mind for autoship orders. I also think the worst of the macro overhang (high rates, consumer squeeze) is probably priced in at this point.

One thing that could push this up sooner: the next earnings print. If they so much as beat on EBITDA or guide a bit higher on customer retention, there’s a real shot at a relief rally. Shorts are thick here and a little good news could force some covering.

Main risk: if they miss on revenue again or start losing active users quarter on quarter, it could slip further toward 20. Not calling it dead money but the patience required is real. If you’re in, just keep an eye out for how sticky their customers stay once pandemic era growth is gone.

Bullish

Open

Created May 3, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$25.54

Above

$29.90

Target Date

Jun 28, 2026

Karma

125 to 17562

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 5, 2026 · 22:46

I get why you’re watching the pain finally slow down, but CHWY hasn’t exactly proven it can grow into its old valuation either. Sure, if they can show some margin or demand improvement I could see a pop, but pet discretionary feels risky in this market. That 29.90 target isn’t crazy, more like a dead cat bounce if they don’t mess up. Not betting the farm here.

May 5, 2026 · 23:29

I get where you’re coming from with the flush slowing, and yeah it’s cheap compared to last summer. But a lot of names never recover once they lose that kind of premium, especially if their sales or margins don’t actually improve. I’ll keep it on my radar but not jumping in unless they really surprise.

May 8, 2026 · 14:37

I mean, I get the logic on the “flush is slowing” thing, but it feels a little early to call the bottom. The stock’s been punished for a reason growth has totally stalled out and the market’s just not giving the benefit of the doubt right now. Your target’s not crazy or anything, but I’d want to see a real shift in their numbers before jumping in here. Could just keep drifting lower if nothing big changes.