EBAY's run over the past year has honestly surprised me a bit. If you look at the chart, it's had a pretty steady climb from the low 70s up to where we're sitting now around 117.13. The jump from August onward was especially sharp, but it feels like it's getting ahead of itself at this point. I’m leaning bearish here and setting my target at 99.00 for the next few months.

The main thing that's nagging at me is how stretched the valuation looks compared to the actual growth. eBay still has the brand and some loyal users, but they're not really outpacing competitors in any meaningful way. The secondhand and collectibles categories are solid but not growing like they used to, and new upstarts keep chipping away at market share. Plus, costs for acquiring new sellers are creeping up, and that eats into margins quick.

Another worry: if consumer spending takes any kind of hit, discretionary platforms like EBAY could see volumes drop pretty fast. That's not a prediction, just something that feels underappreciated with how optimistic the recent run has been. I could definitely see a pullback, at least down to the low 100s, before any new leg up so 99.00 is my base case right now.

I’ll watch their next earnings closely. If they show real margin improvement or finally get traction on some of the newer categories, that could change the story fast. But for now, risk/reward looks tilted to the downside from here.