Alright, I guess we're rolling with Disney (DIS) now, which has been trading like it's stuck in Fantasyland. The stock was moonwalking up near 123 (July) and then tripped on its own laces, down to the low 100s, and lately just keeps bouncing between 100 and 113 like Goofy at a trampoline park. I’m bullish here with a target at 117.50, but I’m not expecting some Cinderella story. More like finally crawling out of the dungeon back to the castle gate.
The first support is just the stock being oversold and everyone being gloomy. If DIS can survive losing its entire streaming margin and people still line up for lame Star Wars rides, it’s not dead money yet. Plus, there’s talk about ESPN’s sports streaming finally launching for real. Imagine if they actually pull off a “Netflix for sports” the market is gonna freak out.
I don’t love that the parks are still the main revenue engine, but summer is coming and families will keep burning cash on $18 churros. Also, most of the layoffs and cost cuts are already done, so the next earnings aren’t going to be another "oops, margins dead" moment. That should give us at least one good quarter to meme our way back up.
Risk? Streaming losses turning into a black hole and the market deciding DIS is Blockbuster 2.0. If they guide down or park attendance flops, this could slide back to 95 with no bottom in sight. But the next real catalyst is that ESPN app if they finally demo it or talk NFL deals, I think shorts get spooked and we rip closer to my target. Not betting the house, but I’m not shorting Mouse.