Bullish CL thesis by chrisinvests

CL - Colgate-Palmolive Company - Consumer Defensive

Anybody watching CL lately? Looking at the past year, it's been a rollercoaster. We saw it dip below $80 a few times back in October and December, and then a huge ramp in February up near $98. Lately it's settled closer to $90, but that kind of movement is pretty unusual for what should be a boring old consumer defensive name.

I think there’s upside from here. My target’s $105.30 in about 12 weeks. A couple reasons: first, cost pressures are actually easing a bit now that commodity prices have calmed down, and that should finally start to show up in gross margins next quarter. Second, these guys have kept organic sales growth positive even in the face of all this pricing noise so they’re passing through costs without losing too much volume, which is honestly not a given in this environment. If management guides to a beat, you’ll see some multiple expansion again.

Not saying there isn’t risk if input costs spike again or if retailers start pushing back harder on price, you could easily see $80 again. It’s not a slam dunk, and that recent volatility is a little concerning. But for a defensive with a sticky product portfolio, I’ll take that risk for a few months.

Next catalyst is the quarterly earnings in about 8 weeks. If they show improved margin or even just decent volume numbers, I expect the market to get more comfortable paying a premium again.

Bullish

Open

Created May 22, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$90.44

Above

$105.30

Target Date

Aug 14, 2026

Karma

119 to 16960

Above target (win)Projection

Comments

May 22, 2026 · 23:17

That’s a pretty aggressive target for CL in just 12 weeks, especially after all the volatility you mentioned. I’m just not sure easing commodity costs alone are enough to move the needle that fast for a slow grower like this. I get the logic, but this stock doesn’t usually reward that kind of impatience. Wouldn’t be shocked if it just chills around $90 for a while.

May 23, 2026 · 00:46

I get where you’re coming from with the cost pressures easing, but CL running to 105 in twelve weeks feels real optimistic given how sideways it’s been outside that one spike. Maybe if they also surprise on earnings or guide up, but I’d want more than just commodity prices cooling off to bet on that kind of move. Not saying it can’t happen, just seems like a stretch with the current sentiment.

May 25, 2026 · 00:44

I kind of agree with the others this run to 105 in three months feels like a stretch, especially when the only real tailwind is commodity costs cooling off a bit. CL isn’t exactly known for wild breakouts and most of those moves you mentioned got faded right after. If it creeps up I could see closer to 95 but not much higher without something surprising in the earnings.

May 29, 2026 · 22:01

Honestly I’m in the same camp as you here. That $105 in 12 weeks just isn’t CL’s style, especially if you’re mostly leaning on commodity prices easing. The February spike felt like a total outlier and those “boring” stocks usually snap right back to mean. I’ll believe a steady climb if we see a new catalyst, but right now I’m not betting on fireworks.

May 30, 2026 · 14:40

I get where you’re coming from but I’m not seeing the upside either. The swings you pointed out were definitely unusual, but unless there’s something big on the horizon, CL just doesn’t usually rip like that. Cost relief is good but that alone hasn’t been enough for these consumer names to break out past old highs. I’d need to see more than just easing commodities before I’d bet on that kind of move.

May 26, 2026 · 00:33

I see where you’re coming from about cost pressures easing, but honestly CL jumping 15 bucks in three months feels like wishful thinking. It’s not like toothpaste sales are suddenly going to explode. Their price swings lately feel more like weird noise than any sign of a new trend. I’d be a lot more comfortable if management hinted at some big change or there was more than just softer input costs.

May 28, 2026 · 22:31

I’m with everyone else on this. That February spike felt more like a fluke than some new trend for CL, and unless you see a big catalyst coming soon, $105 by August sounds like a leap. Commodity costs might be easing, but consumer defensives this size don’t usually rip like that off just one tailwind. Would love to hear what else you think could drive that move.

May 30, 2026 · 00:35

So we’re calling $15 upside on toothpaste because raw materials are a little cheaper now? Unless Colgate starts selling NFTs with your next tube, I don’t see how we get to $105 that fast. Defensive stocks don’t usually go turbo just because costs aren’t as bad as last year.