Bearish TXN thesis by emma_trader

TXN - Texas Instruments Inc - Technology

TXN has had a wild ride over the last year. If you look at the chart, you see a pretty choppy trend: sharp drops from last summer, then a decent attempt at a recovery, only to slump again into the fall. That November low below 160 was brutal. But since the winter, the pace has totally changed. It started grinding up, and recently the move to 285 was way stronger than I'd expected for a stock like this.

I'm leaning bearish at this level. At 302.73, TXN is pricing in a lot of good news and I don't see much margin for error. The demand recovery in analog chips is happening, but inventory corrections aren't done yet and I think there are still a couple quarters of choppy orders ahead. Margins look stretched right now and any slip in end market demand (especially industrials) could easily lead to a guide down.

One risk is that TXN surprises with stronger than expected orders from auto or defense, which have been kind of a wild card in the past. Also, multiple expansion has been a thing across the sector, so maybe the market shrugs off any softness for a while. But from here I expect some mean reversion. I'm setting my near term target at 255.00, which is about where things stabilized back in April and fits if multiples reset a bit.

The next major catalyst is earnings in a few weeks. If they talk soft on the call or push back their guidance for a full recovery, I think we'll see 255 fairly quickly. I don't like shorting the sector in general, but this run feels overextended and I'd rather be on the sidelines or short than trying to squeeze out the last drops.

Bearish

Open

Created May 18, 2026

Community vote

Entry Price

$302.73

Below

$255.00

Target Date

Jun 15, 2026

Karma

130 to 18065

Below target (win)Projection

Comments

May 18, 2026 · 23:58

Feels like a lot of optimism is baked in for a company that's still got some demand headwinds. The grind up from the winter was pretty relentless but honestly, if macro cracks or semis get hit again, TXN isn't immune. 300+ just seems rich for this name unless you think the industrial cycle magically takes off. I get the bear lean here.

May 20, 2026 · 00:05

Totally agree, the recent run feels disconnected from what’s actually going on in the business. The market’s acting like any sniff of a rebound is all clear, but pricing in “good news only” at 300+? Just feels way ahead of itself, especially with those demand issues still unresolved. I’m not touching it up here.

May 22, 2026 · 22:54

Right there with you. TXN ripping to 285 and then through 300 is just silly for what’s basically a slow growth chip company with cyclical headaches and not a lot of real momentum. People buying here are chasing a fake narrative and gonna get smoked when the next earnings miss lands. If you’re long at these levels, good luck.

May 22, 2026 · 23:40

Honestly can’t argue with that. The move from 160 to above 300 felt way overdone, especially for a semi name that still lives and dies by the cycle. I don’t see how you pay this much for TXN when the revenue growth is barely moving and capex is only getting bigger. The market’s just ignoring risk for now.

May 27, 2026 · 14:27

Honestly, I get why people are piling in but I’m not convinced these highs can hold up. Like you said, TXN just isn’t showing anything fundamentally new to deserve this move. The market’s treating a grind off brutal lows like it’s game changing momentum when it’s probably just the usual cycle noise. If the next couple earnings aren’t spotless, this thing’s got plenty of room to fall back.

May 25, 2026 · 00:24

I’m with you on being cautious here. That move up from the lows was nuts considering TXN still hasn’t solved for the cyclical demand issues. If earnings or guidance slip even a little, this thing could unwind in a hurry. People are acting like semis are immune to bad news now, but history says otherwise. I’m not touching it at these levels.

May 26, 2026 · 14:23

Finally, someone else calling out the hopium. People keep treating TXN like it’s the second coming just because it ripped from 160 to 300 but all the same garbage problems are still there. It’s not some AI rocket, it’s a slow grind and you’re right pricing in perfection at these levels is a joke. I’d love to see all the bagholders explain it after the next weak print.

May 27, 2026 · 23:17

TXN mooning like it just invented AI chips is wild to watch honestly. This is still the same slow and steady boomer semi name that got wrecked under 160 not that long ago. No way I’m buying at 300 pretending the old chart pain never happened. Eventually someone’s gonna remember it’s just good old Texas Instruments and not some growth monster.

May 28, 2026 · 14:19

I don’t hate this setup. TXN running this hard off mediocre fundamentals feels pretty flimsy to me too. The price action since winter is wild considering they haven’t really solved for that cyclical pain you mentioned. Unless something changes fundamentally, I can see this one giving back a chunk by 2026.