Look, if you’ve been watching TEAM lately you know it’s been straight up speedrunning the stock market’s version of a gravity challenge. From over 200 last June to sub 60 in April. That’s not just a correction, that’s a meme worthy collapse. But now we’re chilling around 86.62 and I’m calling a bounce targeting 103.94. That’s a hot 20 percent ish move from here, which feels about right for a stock that just faceplanted but is not, in fact, dead.

Reason number one for this bounce play: these Atlassian guys still have sticky enterprise products. Even as all the SaaS multiples get crushed and everyone’s doomposting about IT budgets, companies still gotta manage their work somehow (Jira fans, your pain is eternal). Recent earnings weren’t a disaster either, just not hypergrowth anymore. Market treats that like zombie apocalypse, but honestly, it’s just a reset.

I’m also seeing some signs of capitulation in the chart. The drop below 70 looked like panic selling, and now the price is doing the dead cat bounce thing. Classic. If we get even a whiff of positive news maybe a surprise beat or a new product launch this thing could jump. Not saying it’s going back to last year’s highs, but a relief rally to 104 or so? Yeah, I can buy that.

Risk is simple: if management guides down again, or if we see more big tech spend cuts, TEAM gets meme’d right back to the low 70s. Don’t bet the rent. I’ll flip bullish short term if we get any bullish guidance or even just not terrible macro data in the next couple months. Until then, I’m just here for the potential upside and the wild ride.