APA has been on a wild ride over the past year. Anyone looking at the chart will see how it crawled along under 25 for months and then just ripped from late February, peaking above 43 in March. Since then, it’s dropped back into the high 30s and feels like it’s trying to find its range. That’s a big move for a company that, let’s be honest, wasn’t exactly the market darling for most of 2025.

I’m leaning bullish here with a near term target of 45.00. The main reason: commodity prices are holding up better than expected, and APA’s Permian exposure is an obvious lever. As long as oil stays sticky above 80 a barrel, their cash flow is going to surprise on the upside. They’ve also been trimming costs and divesting non core assets, so operational leverage actually matters now. Plus, the buybacks have quietly stepped up since Q1 maybe not headline grabbing, but it’s adding up.

What gives me pause is how sensitive this is to even a modest pullback in oil. If crude dips, APA can easily roundtrip back to the low 30s just like we saw after March. That volatility matters if you’re trying to sleep at night, and it’s especially real around earnings or OPEC headlines. So I wouldn’t size this up too much until the next earnings call is out of the way.

Eyes on the Q2 numbers in a few weeks management’s guide on capital allocation and production should be a good tell if this run can stick. If they keep printing cash and don’t guide down, I think we’ll see 45.00 again. Just have to be nimble if the macro flips or oil loses steam.