SPOT's chart from the past year is a bit of a rollercoaster. The stock touched highs above 760 back last summer, but since then there’s been a pretty steady trend down, with a couple jagged bounces that failed to hold. Lately it’s been scraping around the low 500s, even dipping under 430 at one point before recovering. To me, that says the momentum crowd bailed but there’s still a floor of buyers who see value.

I’m leaning cautiously bullish here, targeting 590.00. That’s about 14 percent from today’s 516.71. Mostly, I think the pressure has been overdone. Podcasts are stabilizing, music margins are creeping up, and SPOT keeps rolling out price increases with surprisingly little churn. I don’t see it rocketing back to last year’s highs, but I do see room for a measured bounce as investors get more comfortable with its recurring revenue streams.

Biggest risk is another guide down, whether from slower user growth or a miss on premium subs. SPOT has had a habit of talking up its long term potential but then stumbling on the near term numbers. If that happens again, it could mean more pain.

I’d keep an eye on their next earnings call. If they show even incremental progress on profitability or signal another round of subscription hikes, I think the market will notice. But I wouldn’t back the truck up here. A starter position with space to add on dips makes more sense to me than going all in.