It's hard to ignore how far DAL has run over the past year. Just scanning back, it was sitting around 48 back in June last year, and now it's suddenly at 80.02. That's a huge ramp, especially with a few sharp jumps this winter. The airline sector always gets some cyclical tailwinds, but this feels a bit stretched. I'd say the broader move is justified by pent up demand and some decent cost controls, but the easy money has probably already been made.

I'm leaning bearish here, not because the company is falling apart, but because valuation's getting ahead of itself. At 80, this is pricing in a lot of perfection. One thing that stands out is fuel costs if there's a surprise there, margins can compress fast. Also, competition on international routes is ramping up and fares aren't as sticky as people think when everyone wants to fill planes. My target is 68.00, so I'm expecting a pullback of about 15 percent from here, mostly on multiple contraction as the travel boom chills out or if we get any softening in bookings this summer.

I do see one catalyst that could keep the price supported in the short run: the upcoming earnings release. If DAL posts another strong quarter with guidance that's upbeat (and not just rosy headlines), maybe it holds up a bit longer. But any whiff of uncertainty, or if costs are ticking up again, I don't see the current valuation holding.

Risks to a bearish play? If oil prices drop sharply or there's some positive shock for airlines (giant buybacks, regulatory change), this could squeeze even higher. So I'd watch position sizing carefully and not overcommit until the trend actually turns.