Taking a look at SHW around 334.38, it's hard to ignore how choppy the last year has been. There were a few strong bursts (like the August and February spikes up near 365 367), but every rally seems to roll right back over. Lately it's actually been sliding, with that March dip to 310 territory still feeling pretty recent. Feels less like "steady compounder" and more like "ping pong ball" at this point.
I'm still leaning cautious/bullish here, though, with a target of 356.00. The underlying business is very resilient: DIY paint demand may fluctuate, but commercial and industrial projects are slowly grinding higher again, and raw material costs have become less unpredictable than a couple years ago. Plus, management doesn’t usually overpromise earnings guides from SHW tend to be on the conservative side and that builds trust, at least for me.
That said, I don’t love the macro right now. Interest rate worries stick around, and another push above 4 percent on the 10 year could slow renovation spending. If the Fed signals it’s staying hawkish (or if housing data really rolls over), SHW probably won’t buck the sector trend for long. Also worth noting: that drop to 310 was sharp and could repeat if the market gets spooked.
The main near term catalyst is next quarter’s report. If they deliver a beat with any upside in margin commentary, I think you’ll see another run at the high 350s where it’s topped out before. Just not expecting fireworks slow and steady is the most I’m hoping for here, so I’d watch for a move up toward 356.00 over the next 8 weeks and keep a tight leash if the market turns risk off again.
VZ has quietly put together a pretty impressive recovery over the last few months. Not that long ago it was stuck in the low 40s (even bottomed out around 39 in January) after drifting down from last summer, but here we are back at 50.31 as of now. That’s a much steeper climb than I expected this early in the year. The move from under 41 at the end of January to over 51 in early March does make me pause a bit, since it feels like a lot of the "catch up" trade is already completed.
Still, I’m leaning cautiously bullish with a target of 55.85. The turnaround in free cash flow is the main reason. Debt was a big concern for me when rates shot up, but management has been chipping away at it and they haven’t had to cut the dividend. That matters a lot in this space and helps keep income focused holders around. Plus, wireless churn has stayed pretty reasonable, even with all the discounting wars between carriers. If VZ can hold share and keep margins from slipping further, it doesn’t take heroics for the stock to grind higher.
The one thing I’m watching closely: any sign of a price war spiraling again. T Mobile’s aggressive promos last fall spooked me, and if that comes back, the whole sector could stall out. So that’s my main risk here. I’d rather own VZ than chase a growth name at nosebleed multiples, but I’m not getting greedy.
Earnings in a few weeks should set the tone. If they raise guidance or deliver another clean quarter on debt and cash flow, that’s the kind of forward looking catalyst that could get the stock moving toward my target. I’m staying patient and keeping my stops tight just in case we get another sector hiccup.
I've been tracking HD ever since it started rolling over from its late summer highs above 415, and seeing it retrace all the way down to the current 320.75 is pretty remarkable. The market's clearly shifted to risk-off mode for anything exposed to consumer discretionary, and Home Depot's taken it on the chin as housing activity cooled and rates stayed elevated. But when you zoom out, you're looking at a business with a fortress balance sheet, industry dominance, and a track record of compounding value for decades.
The main thing that stands out is how overdone this selloff seems relative to the underlying fundamentals. Even with softer DIY trends, HD has managed to hold gross margins steady thanks to its scale and supply chain efficiency. Pro customer spend is still resilient and makes up a larger share each year, which really helps buffer the hit from the casual consumer. The company’s ability to flex pricing and control costs has kept earnings quality high, and management’s still aggressively buying back shares at these depressed levels. That’s a signal they see real value here too.
Of course, the big risk is that the macro headwinds linger longer than expected. If mortgage rates stay stuck above 7% and the consumer gets squeezed further, we could see another leg down in housing-related names. But I think at these prices, that risk is more than baked in. You're basically paying a market multiple for a business that's historically run circles around the S&P in return on capital. Plus, the dividend is as reliable as they come, which makes waiting for the cycle to turn a lot less painful.
Looking ahead, the setup for a rebound is building as soon as we see any hints of rate cuts or housing stabilization. Next earnings is the key catalyst in my view if management guides even a little optimistic on Pro trends or cost leverage, it should re-rate fast. I'm targeting 377.10 over the next 11 weeks, as I think the market will realize the pessimism here is overdone once sentiment shifts back toward housing and consumer staples.
I've been following LIN for a while, and the recent price recovery from the December lows below 400 to just under 500 signals that something has shifted in the market's sentiment. Even after that run, I think there's still significant upside here if you're willing to look past the headline multiples and focus on the underlying quality of the business. LIN isn't a flashy growth story, but it's quietly compounding earnings and cash flows year after year, which is exactly what I want to see for a deep value play that rewards patience.
The real moat for LIN is its scale and essential nature industrial gases are mission-critical across healthcare, chips, and energy, and the switching costs for customers are huge. The company has pricing power that's held up even when input costs have fluctuated, and that's a big reason margins have remained solid through various macro cycles. Plus, the balance sheet is clean and management's allocation has been disciplined, with steady buybacks and dividends to support shareholder returns.
That said, I do worry a bit about how much optimism is now getting baked in after this price surge. If we see another macro wobble or a slowdown in industrial activity, LIN could pull back just as quickly as it rebounded. But looking forward, the next earnings report is the big catalyst if management guides for stable cash flows and reaffirms their margin targets, I believe we could see this stock re-rate higher.
I'm targeting 572.30 over the next 14 weeks. That's a decent move from here, but with LIN's history of execution and the sector tailwinds, I think the risk/reward still lines up well for patient investors willing to ride out some volatility.
I've been tracking SLB for months now and the recent price action has finally got my attention. If you look back, the stock languished in the low to mid-30s for most of last year, but since January, it’s staged a steady climb, pushing above 50 before this small pullback to 45.32. That kind of move, with real volume behind it, isn’t just random noise it’s often a sign that the market is starting to recognize something the value crowd’s been harping on for a while.
My bullish stance here boils down to a few key drivers. First, global upstream capex is coming back in a meaningful way. With oil prices holding up and majors needing to replenish reserves, SLB stands out as the best levered play on an international cycle. Their geographic mix is tilted toward regions actually spending again, and management’s focused on higher-margin digital and integrated services, not just old-school rigs. That's what can drive real earnings power, not just a cyclical pop.
Of course, there are risks, and I'm not ignoring them. A sudden correction in crude prices would put a quick lid on upstream spend and SLB would feel that pain faster than most. But balance sheet discipline has improved, and they’re not running the company like it’s 2014 anymore. If oil just stays above 70, I think the downside is contained.
Next earnings, SLB could surprise. If they guide higher on international bookings or show margin expansion from the higher-value segments, I see the stock moving to 53.83 in the next 10 weeks. At today’s price, that risk/reward looks pretty compelling for a name the market still isn’t fully pricing for a real upcycle.
