LSCC's run over the last year is wild. Just looking back, this thing more than doubled from under 70 last fall to over 135 now, and the spike from 110 in April to 147 by late May was just ridiculous. It's cooled off a bit but that sort of ramp is not exactly normal for a mid cap chip stock. Makes you wonder if we're getting over our skis or if there's more left in the tank.
I'm bullish here, but with some caution baked in. Lattice keeps crushing it in low power programmable chips, and demand in industrial and automotive is pretty sticky. Their gross margins are best in class for this segment, and they're not nearly as exposed to the consumer cycle as most. Add in the fact that they're moving up market with new product cycles and you can kind of see why people have been chasing this name all year.
Short term, I'd target 158.00. That's not moonshot territory, just a measured leg higher from here as I think the next couple of quarters could see more guide ups if design wins keep rolling in. That said, valuation is stretched now LSCC is trading like it's going to double again in a year, which is pretty optimistic. If there's an earnings miss or a sign customers are digesting inventory, this thing could snap back hard. So I'm not going all in at these levels, but I'm holding and maybe adding on any pullback.
The main thing to watch: their next earnings call. If management gives color on accelerating orders or bigger contracts in auto/industrial, I think the market rewards them. If not, this could go sideways for a while. Either way, lots of eyes on this name now.
ZTS has gotten absolutely wrecked this year. Just looking at the chart, the stock was cruising above 160 less than a year ago and now it’s sitting at 79.44. The drop from 145 ish in March to sub 80 in May is pretty brutal. There was a stepladder down since last summer, but the recent leg feels like something broke maybe an ugly earnings miss or some major guide down spooked everyone? Either way, it’s trading at multi year lows and looks pretty washed out.
I’m leaning bullish here, mostly because this is still the biggest name in animal health. Pet care spending is sticky, and even if things slow, vet clinics aren’t about to stop ordering meds and vaccines. ZTS has a fat pipeline, recurring revenue, and doesn’t feel like a terminal decline story. I’m setting a 15% upside target with a price of 91.35. Not shooting for the moon, just expecting a dead cat bounce or at least some mean reversion if they show any signs of stabilizing the business.
Main risk is that something structural really did break maybe a patent issue, regulatory mess, or demand falling way more than expected. If they guide down again next quarter, this could just be dead money for months. That’s why I’m not loading the boat, just starting a position.
Big catalyst to watch is next earnings. If management addresses the concerns head on and doesn’t drop another bomb, I think ZTS will get a relief rally. Not a hero trade, but feels like a spot where the bad news is mostly priced in unless there’s another shoe to drop.
TRV's been bouncing around quite a bit this year. If you look at the price swings, there was that dip into the $250s late last summer, but since then it’s clawed its way back and even popped above $310 in early March. Now it's sitting at $299.94, kind of in the middle of its recent range, but honestly I’m leaning bullish here. I see an opportunity for this to push to $329.00 in the next few months.
Reason one: underwriting discipline. With so much noise in insurance lately, TRV’s been quietly posting solid loss ratios and hasn’t tried to buy growth at the expense of profit. Plus, rates are firming up in some commercial lines, which should keep margins healthy. Another plus is that they've been consistently buying back shares whenever the stock dips signal that management’s confident and committed to shareholder returns.
Risk is all about catastrophic events. If hurricane season gets wild or we see some outlier claims (always possible), that’ll hit earnings hard and probably kill momentum. That's the downside you just have to stomach if you’re in insurance.
Next catalyst for me is their Q2 report. If they stick the landing again and maybe throw out a slight beat or just guide steady, I think that’s enough for a move higher. Not expecting fireworks, but a clean print plus another buyback announcement would do the trick. Put me down for a $329.00 target, which is about 9.7 percent up from here. Not a home run, but decent risk/reward in a choppy market.
PH has been on a wild ride over the past year. Just looking at the price swings from 670ish last summer up to over 1000 in March, then dropping back down to the 860s now, it's clear this stock has been on plenty of watchlists. The recent pullback from the March highs feels a bit overdone to me, especially since the company hasn't been hit by any major negative headlines.
Why I'm leaning bullish here: PH has a pretty sticky client base in industrials and aerospace, which tends to give them some pricing power. They've also been pushing margins higher for a while now, and if you look at their last couple quarters, they're still printing solid free cash flow. I think a lot of the recent dip is just people taking money off the table after the run up, not a sign that the business is in trouble.
That said, I'm not blind to the risk that if the US economy does slow down in the back half of the year, PH probably trades down with the rest of industrials. That's just part of owning a cyclical like this. Also, valuation is not exactly a screaming bargain after the multi year rally, so there's not a ton of room for disappointment from here.
I'm targeting 1030.00 in the next 8 weeks. The setup I'm watching for is a positive guide or order book update in the next earnings call. If they show bookings are steady or even ticking up again, I see the stock bouncing back toward those March highs.
RTX has really been all over the place this past year. There’s been a lot of chop in the chart: a grind up from the 130s through last summer, then a more dramatic move above 200 by January, only to get whacked back under 150 in late April. Recently it’s bounced back up around 174, but I wouldn’t call this stable. The swings have been real.
I’m taking a cautiously bullish stance here and putting my target at 207.00. The reason: US defense spending looks like it’s not letting up, and RTX is as close to a pure play on that as you can get. Backlog numbers last quarter were crazy high, and the order flow is steady. I don’t see Washington dialing back the checks anytime soon, especially with global tensions still running hot. Plus, RTX has finally started to show they can manage the supply chain mess that hit margins last year. If they keep that up, upside gets unlocked.
I’m not blind to the risk. There’s always headline risk with defense stocks, and RTX gets hit extra hard any time there’s a peace talk headline or government budget squabble. Also, last earnings call sounded a little too optimistic on cost controls for my taste. If they stumble there, we could see another ugly drop.
What I’m watching for: any sign of a dividend hike or a big beat in the next earnings. That’d be a real catalyst. At these levels, the market seems somewhere between skeptical and just bored with RTX, but all it takes is one quarter of clean execution and the stock probably gets re rated higher. Not a hero play, but I like the odds for the next few months.
Honestly, ON has been wild over the last year. Looking at the price history, it’s almost comical: hanging out in the 40s and 50s for months, then suddenly ripping all the way to 88 in April and now at 113.11. Volatility like this always makes me pause, but it’s hard to ignore the story here.
I’m bullish from this level, even if it feels a little late to the party. My target is 134.00. ON’s exposure to power management and EV semis gives it some legit tailwinds, especially as automakers keep doubling down on electrification and grid upgrades keep getting budget. There’s actual demand behind the hype. Plus, their recent earnings blowout (and that pop in April) wasn’t just some meme spike margins are up, and guidance was solid. The market wanted proof, and ON delivered.
My main hesitation: you’re basically buying into a name that just more than doubled in a few months. If sentiment turns or the next quarter is just "okay" instead of great, this could retrace 10 15 percent without blinking. That’s a real risk, and I wouldn’t size up too much here. But I don’t think the growth is fully priced in yet, and as long as they keep showing improving numbers, the multiple can move higher.
The big catalyst ahead is the next quarterly report in about 10 weeks. If we get another beat and a confident outlook, I see momentum carrying through. Not a home run setup, but I like the risk/reward for patient holders at this level.
Anyone else been watching TFC over the last year? It’s definitely been a ride. The stock was languishing around 39 44 for months, then had that pop last summer up to 45+, and more recently just swung between the mid 40s to crossing 50. I’m leaning bullish here, with a target of 59.25 in the next few months.
The main thing for me is that the recent volatility isn’t really about TFC’s core business. Most of the choppiness feels like the general regional bank sector vibes: everyone’s still spooked about rates and deposit flows, but TFC’s balance sheet actually held up better than a lot of its peers. Loan growth has been slow, sure, but their credit quality has stayed solid even during the mess earlier in the year. Also, they’ve started executing on cost cutting, which should start showing up more in the numbers soon.
The kicker is that next quarter’s earnings (should be late July) could be a catalyst if we get even a modest beat, since expectations are still pretty muted in this part of the market. If they guide for stable NIMs and show some good progress on efficiency, I think that’s enough to get the stock rerated. The chart says there’s some resistance near 55 but honestly if sentiment flips this could run faster than expected.
One risk here is that regional banks could get hit again if rates move unexpectedly or if there’s a new regulatory push after the dust settles on the sector. If that happens, TFC isn’t immune and we could retest those mid 40s. But I like the risk/reward here with more upside if things stabilize. Watching for a strong update on expenses and maybe even a small div hike as a bonus in the next report.
DVN has had a pretty wild year, honestly. Just looking at the price action, it spent last summer bouncing between 31 and 35, stayed range bound for months, and then something clearly shifted in January. The ramp from the high 30s to over 50 in May feels like a big sentiment flip on oil and gas exposure. I’m not chasing that all the way up, but I’m still leaning bullish from here.
The first reason is balance sheet discipline. DVN has kept its payout model flexible, so they can support a solid dividend when prices are good, but don’t crater their cash flow if oil retreats. Management hasn’t gotten reckless like some of the smaller E&Ps. Also, M&A hasn’t gotten out of control in this space (yet), which is actually kind of comforting right now.
Second oil demand is still steady, and OPEC’s recent moves suggest supply isn’t about to flood the market. That’s constructive for Devon’s realized prices, and they tend to hedge pretty smartly compared to some peers. If you believe oil stays above 70, DVN at 45 is still decent value given their cost base and cash return plans. My target is 54.50, which prices in a few more quarters of stable realized prices and the current buyback pace. It’s not a home run, but I think it can get there without needing a commodity spike.
The risk is always the same: if crude takes a nosedive, DVN will get punished, no matter how careful they are. Watch the next OPEC meeting and any surprises from the Fed. Next big catalyst for me is their next earnings if they surprise with capital returns or guide for higher volumes, this could see another leg up. Not betting the house, but I’m holding for now.
Looking at KMB right now after this pretty rough 12 months, I'm leaning bullish but not expecting fireworks. The downtrend has been almost relentless: last May the stock was over 130, even kissed 139, and now it's sitting at 99.19. That’s a huge drawdown for a defensive name like this. Feels like the market just gave up on anything consumer staples in the last year, but now the selling looks a bit overdone.
I’m targeting 115.00 in the next few months. That’s about where it popped after the February bounce and before this little flatline. Reason one: it’s historically rare for KMB to trade at these levels except during truly ugly macro or a big company specific blowup, and I don’t see either right now. Reason two: the dividend is still solid and management’s been consistent with payouts. People eventually rotate back to yield, especially if rates start looking toppy or the market gets choppy again. That’s usually when KMB catches a bid.
The biggest risk is that volumes keep slipping and they end up having to guide down. Staple companies are getting squeezed everywhere private label competition, lingering inflation, squeezed consumers. If KMB issues soft guidance or another weak quarter, the knife might keep falling.
Near term catalyst is the upcoming earnings: if management can show even mild stability and reiterate their payout, I think that’s enough to get us back to 115.00. Not a moonshot, but the reward/risk here feels skewed to the upside after the selloff.
Surprised by DOW's (Dow Inc.) rally lately, honestly. This thing spent almost half a year in the low 20s and even dipped below that last August, looked like pure dead money at that point. Then starting early this year, it basically doubled. That's some serious momentum, though I'm definitely not the only one side eyeing how sharp that climb has been from January to May. The last print was 40.58, which is wild compared to where it sat just a few months ago.
I'm bullish here, but not crazy bullish. The speed of that recovery has to mean a little bit of FOMO and maybe a touch of overreaction from the market as people pile back into cyclical names. Still, DOW's margins have been improving and costs are way more under control now than they were during last year's pain. Plus, chemicals pricing looks like it's holding up better than expected, at least short term. Global demand hasn't totally fallen apart, which is what people were pricing in back in the fall.
My target is 48.50 in the next 10 weeks. That's right around a 20 percent move from here. I think we get there if DOW can beat expectations on free cash flow in the next earnings or give a clear sign that buybacks are coming back in a bigger way. They're sitting on decent cash now, so it's not out of the question.
That said, the risk is real: if the economy shows any new cracks or China's recovery stalls out, DOW can give a lot of these gains back fast. This is a cyclical stock and there's not much of a safety net if the macro backdrop sours again. But with sentiment shifting this quickly, I'll ride the wave for now and keep a close eye on those next earnings.
