Not sure if anyone else is watching SCHW, but after that little roller coaster the past year I’m leaning bullish right now. Basically, we saw SCHW slide from the mid 90s down to the high 70s last spring, but then it’s steadily clawed back most of that ground. There was a nice run up to 101 in January, a quick spike to 103, and then this weird dip back to the low 90s by April. Now we’re hanging out just over 100 again. Seems like the market is still trying to figure out where to price in some of the noise from last year.
Anyway, I’m thinking the real catalyst this time is going to be when SCHW reports next quarter. With interest rates still at these levels, their net interest margin should hold up fine and they’re not nearly as exposed to deposit flight as everyone panicked about before. On top of that, they’ve kept asset growth positive, which is not nothing given the market whiplash. The digital brokerage side is hanging in there with new clients too. I’m setting my target at 115.00, so that’s about a 15 buck move from today.
One thing I’m a little nervous about: if we see another spike in money market yields or if the Fed does something dumb, SCHW could catch another drawdown. It’s not immune to macro shocks, even if they’ve managed the transition pretty well so far. But unless there’s another surprise out of left field, I don’t see a return to the ugly 70s levels.
If they can deliver a beat and, more importantly, guide strongly for the back half of the year, I could see a rotation back into the stock. Might not be the hottest ticket, but risk reward feels pretty good from here.
TTWO has had a wild ride over the last year, and it’s honestly been tough to get a read on where the floor is. From a high of 261.50 in October to dipping close to 194 in February, it’s been a rollercoaster. Right now it’s sitting at 205.10, which is actually closer to the lower end of the recent range. Pretty much the only thing that’s consistent with this stock is volatility.
I’m taking a bullish stance for the next few months, targeting 242.00. The main driver is the upcoming pipeline, especially if we get any more hints about Grand Theft Auto VI or other bigger franchise titles. Historically, TTWO pops whenever there’s concrete news on the flagship games, and there’s still so much pent up hype that I don’t think is priced in at these levels. I also like that management has kept costs in check and avoided some of the big earnings blowups we’ve seen elsewhere in the gaming sector lately.
That said, this isn’t a no brainer. My biggest worry is that after a string of delays, investors are jumpy, and any more slippage on game release dates could nuke sentiment again. The February dip showed how quickly everyone can bail if the narrative sours. So, it’s not exactly a sleep well at night position.
In the near term, I’m watching for investor day in a few weeks as a possible spark. If we get a real update on the title schedule or new guidance, that’s the kind of thing that can move this back above 230 in a hurry. Not a stock to diamond hand forever, but from here I’m looking for 242.00 within the next several months barring another major rug pull on launches.
Looking at FANG lately feels like watching someone slowly but surely win a long game of Tetris. The last year has been a pretty steady climb from the low 130s to almost 191 as of this month, with only a handful of quick dips that got bought up fast. So the trend is definitely up and to the right, and I think there’s more left to go just not the wild moves people sometimes hope for.
I’m bullish here, but not swinging for fences. Setting my target at 211.00 over the next 10 weeks. I see two big reasons why: first, commodity prices have been surprisingly resilient given all the macro hand wringing, and FANG has kept expenses in check compared to a lot of peers. Their last earnings print was all about disciplined capex and free cash flow, not aggressive growth for its own sake. Second, management seems content to buy back shares and increase dividends rather than chase M&A, which usually works out better for shareholders in the long run. The improved balance sheet gives them a nice cushion if oil stumbles.
The risk I can’t ignore: if WTI drops back to the low 60s, these guys will get hit just like any other upstream player. Doesn’t matter how efficient you are if the whole sector’s repricing. And with the chart moving up this quickly in the past couple months, any negative surprise could mean a quick 10 to 15 point flush before things settle.
For the near term, eyes are on Q2 guidance if they stick to their capital discipline and edge up the dividend again, I think the “steady compounder” narrative stays intact. I’m not expecting fireworks, but I do expect a little more juice out of this move before it gets fully priced in.
PEP has actually been pretty interesting if you look at the price action over the last year. After grinding lower through most of last summer, the stock bounced back nicely from under 130 up to 167 earlier this year. Now it’s cooled back off to around 157.06. If you zoom out, it looks like the market still respects PEP as a defensive name but won’t give it a free pass anymore.
I’m bullish here for a move back to 180.00 over the next few months. Why? First, earnings stability. Even when consumer spend gets shaky, PepsiCo’s mix of beverages and snacks holds up. They just raised prices recently and didn’t see a big volume drop. The margins are still healthy, which really shows pricing power. Plus, the dividend is no joke for this kind of stock good for folks who want something less wild than tech.
One risk is pretty obvious: if we actually get a full blown consumer recession, junk food and sodas could take a hit (it’s not bulletproof). The other thing is rates. If we get more hawkish surprises from the Fed, you know the drill everything with a yield gets hammered, even the blue chips.
The upcoming catalyst I’m watching is their next earnings print. Last time, any beat or raise led to a quick pop. If they can guide strong again, I think the market re rates the stock higher. So yeah, not a home run setup but I see a path for a solid 15% move from here. I’m in, with a target of 180.00.
XEL had a pretty wild ride this past year. If you look back, it spent months meandering around the high 60s to low 70s, then out of nowhere it ripped above 80 in September and October. Since then, yeah, it gave some of that back, but it hasn’t crashed all the way down. Sitting at 78.09 right now, feels like it’s trying to find its feet again.
I’m leaning bullish for the next few months. The rate environment is finally stabilizing, and utility names like XEL should start to catch a bid as people rotate out of high flyers and back into steady cash flow. Their recent earnings weren’t mind blowing, but not a disaster either. XEL is still growing its dividend and has solid regulatory relationships, so the bottom probably holds unless there’s some major macro shock.
Looking for a move up to 92.00. That’s around 18 percent over current price, but I think it’s realistic if utility sentiment improves and rates don’t spike again. The main risk: regulatory blowback or surprise capex overruns. If something ugly pops up in their next update like a rate case going sideways that could stall things fast.
The big catalyst is any shift in Fed tone or a decent earnings surprise. Even a modest beat could set off a chain of upgrades. If that happens, I’d expect the move up to hit pretty quickly. Until then, this feels like a decent risk/reward play if you’re cool with a bit of chop.
MA has spent the last year whipping traders around. There were a few sharp runs into the mid 500s and higher (even hitting just above 590 for a minute last summer), but lately almost all that upside has faded. Right now we're sitting at 502.76, which feels like the market's basically tossing the towel after a string of soft closes since December. Volatility came back in a big way after the winter lull. If you zoom out, the stock still has a pretty clear long term uptrend, but this drawdown has been rough.
I’m bullish here for one main reason: MA controls a piece of infrastructure that isn’t getting disrupted any time soon. Transactions keep trending up even with competition and talk of new rails. The company keeps squeezing more operating leverage as volumes rise, and management keeps finding ways to push margins higher without having to grow costs out of control. That’s where the value comes from at these prices, not just some macro bounce.
But yeah, there’s a real risk if US or European consumer spending tanks. MA is exposed to that, and you could see a guide down if wallets snap shut. That’s the thing I’m watching for, especially if credit card delinquencies start climbing in the next quarter or two. Still, I think the company will be able to weather a slowdown better than most. Also, the catalyst I'm watching is Q1 earnings: if they put up another double digit revenue print and stick to their margin guidance, the stock should grind back to 585.00 within 10 weeks.
Not shooting for the moon here but I think MA at this level is a reasonable shot for a 16 percent move off these lows. Not a trade for adrenaline junkies but I’m putting it back on my watch list.
Looking at Morgan Stanley right now, I see a name that's been riding the wave of a resurgent market, but the last couple months have been a reality check. After peaking north of 186 back in January, it's given up a decent chunk, now sitting around 157. That's about a 15%% pullback from recent highs, and if you zoom out, it's a classic case of financials catching their breath after a strong run up from the 110s last spring.
From a macro perspective, I'm bullish on MS heading into the summer. The rate environment is stabilizing, and while everyone likes to talk about margin compression, the real story is the return of deal activity. IPO and M&A pipelines are quietly rebuilding as volatility comes down, and that's lifeblood for Morgan's fee income. In wealth management, the asset base is sticky and management's pivot toward more recurring revenue is starting to show up in the numbers, making earnings less cyclical than they used to be.
The caveat here is credit risk. If CRE hiccups or we see a sudden spike in defaults, the whole sector gets hit, but MS is less exposed than the regionals and has kept its balance sheet pretty clean. I see that as manageable, especially with loan loss reserves already trending up.
Next quarter's earnings are the key catalyst guidance around advisory revenue and net interest income will set the tone. If they confirm the deal pipeline momentum, I see MS bouncing back to 175.24 over the next 9 weeks. That's a solid risk-reward from here, especially for a name with this kind of franchise strength.
AMAT’s run over the last year has been nothing short of wild just look at the chart. It was slogging through the low 140s in April, barely holding 150, and suddenly it’s been on an absolute tear since October, nearly doubling by February before pulling back a bit now. These swings reflect the broader market's recalibration around semiconductors and the realization that the capex cycle for advanced fabs isn’t cooling off any time soon.
My stance here is bullish, but with some macro realism mixed in. The real driver is the relentless tailwind from AI adoption, which is forcing hyperscalers and foundries to invest at a rate we haven’t seen since the early 2010s. Applied Materials sits at the heart of all that when TSMC, Samsung, and Intel ramp up, AMAT’s order book fills up. Their process tools are essentially un-displaceable for bleeding edge nodes, and that’s not changing unless we see a fundamental shift in chipmaking technology itself. The recent earnings show not just top-line growth but operating leverage starting to kick in as utilization rates climb.
One caveat: the stock is pricing in a lot of perfection right now. If we get a sudden demand shock (think macro slowdown, especially out of Asia), or a hiccup in the foundry spending plans, this could unwind quickly. Plus, China export restrictions remain a headline risk, even though management’s been navigating that pretty well so far. So I wouldn’t go all-in at these levels, but I do think the secular growth story outweighs the cyclical risk over the next couple quarters.
We’ve got the next earnings report and, more importantly, fresh WFE (wafer fab equipment) industry data coming within a month. If those numbers confirm that foundry capex is holding up, I see AMAT getting back to 404.06 in the next eight weeks. That’s my target. I’m watching for any macro wobble, but if the AI infrastructure buildout momentum is still there, this one’s got more room to run.
This might sound counterintuitive, but I think there's a compelling bullish setup brewing for CMG at these levels. The stock absolutely cratered from the low 50s last summer to under 32 in November, but since then we've seen a pretty orderly recovery. It's been grinding up, bouncing from the 31-32 range and now creeping toward 35. Macro headwinds have definitely weighed on restaurant names, but that kind of capitulation usually marks a bottom rather than the start of another leg down.
Looking at the bigger picture, food inflation is finally moderating and that helps Chipotle's margin profile. Labor costs stay sticky, but CMG has a history of passing price increases through without losing traffic. The digital channel is still driving incremental sales, and while it isn't growing at the breakneck pace of a couple years ago, it's sticky. That's key for maintaining throughput and keeping costs in check, even if same-store sales growth stays muted.
The risk here is that if the consumer softens further and we see real cracks in discretionary spend, we'll get another wave of downgrades on the sector, and CMG won't be immune. But in my view, the market's already baked a recession trade into this stock. If the Fed manages a soft landing and we avoid a major pullback in consumer confidence, CMG could re-rate quickly.
I see 39.80 as a realistic target over the next couple months, especially with earnings coming up as a potential catalyst. If management guides to stable margins and even modest comp growth, I think the market gives them credit for weathering the storm. Not the most exciting trade, but the risk/reward looks skewed to the upside from here.
I've been watching MRK's price action closely over the past year, and the move from sub-80 last summer to where we are now around 115 has been nothing short of impressive. It's not just a bounce this is a breakout, fueled by both sector rotation back into defensives and a string of clinical wins that have reignited interest in big pharma. Even after this run, I don't think the market's fully pricing in the next leg up.
The core story for Merck is the durability of Keytruda, but that's not the only pillar anymore. The pipeline has shown real breadth, with recent positive updates in oncology and vaccines offering diversification that should support earnings growth even as competitive dynamics in immunotherapy heat up. This matters in the current macro backdrop: as rates remain elevated and risk assets get choppier, institutional flows are likely to favor companies with visible cash flows and less exposure to cyclical revenue swings.
One risk here is the looming patent expirations, especially as biosimilar threats become more tangible. But the market seems to be overestimating the near-term impact. Management's been proactive about M&A and late-stage pipeline investments, which cushions some of that cliff. As long as the pipeline execution continues at this pace, the downside should be manageable.
The next earnings print is the key catalyst. If guidance gets bumped on the back of those vaccine launches or if we see a positive surprise in China sales, I think MRK can trade up to 134.08 within the next 10 weeks. The momentum is there, and the setup is favorable for a defensive compounder like Merck in this environment.
