That ALK chart has been a bit of a rollercoaster over the past year. Not long ago it traded up around 60, then dropped sharply to the mid 30s in March. It’s working its way back, now sitting at 42.24, but I’m not jumping in with both feet yet. My stance is mildly bullish, but I’m definitely treading carefully here and only see upside to 48.50 over the next couple months.
The main reason I’d consider a position is the company’s historical resilience after big drawdowns like the one we just saw. When ALK gets oversold like it did this spring, you usually see some mean reversion, and we’re already seeing a partial bounce. If they can post anything resembling solid operational numbers next quarter, that’s enough for a continued recovery toward my target. Also, jet fuel prices are down a bit from their winter highs, which should help margins.
However, this isn’t just a turnaround play. My worry is that those wild swings in price lately reflect real business uncertainty. Airline stocks are notorious for overreacting to just about everything, and it doesn’t take much for a sector wide move to hit ALK hard. If there’s economic wobble or any negative guidance, this can easily slip back into the high 30s.
For me, the next catalyst is their quarterly update if management can show they’ve got costs under control and demand is holding up, I see this getting back to 48.50. I wouldn’t back up the truck, but a cautious position seems justified as long as you’re watching for turbulence.
EXC's been bouncing around a lot this past year, but if you zoom out a bit, it’s mostly been rangebound between about 43 and 49. Sure, we had that pop to almost 50 in March, but every time it gets up there, it seems to pull back. Right now it’s at 45.75, which is sort of in the middle. I’m leaning bearish here in the medium term, looking for a move down to 41.00.
The big thing on my mind is how utility stocks like this one get treated when there’s even a hint of higher rates sticking around. There’s no real growth story here and with yields still elevated, the “safe” dividend angle just isn’t as protective as people hope. Plus, the cost structure for these guys has been getting squeezed by higher maintenance and regulatory expense. That doesn’t show up quarter to quarter, but it grinds down margins over time.
One thing that could swing things fast though: if power demand from a summer heatwave is crazy high, there’s a chance earnings get a short term boost. I just think the market’s already baked in a lot of the defensive play, and there’s more downside risk if they guide down or rates push higher.
I’d say the main risk to shorting or avoiding here is if the Fed reverses course hard on rates, EXC could easily snap right back to the upper end of the range. But as things stand, I’m more comfortable waiting this out. Target price is 41.00, so not a huge downside, but enough for a slow burn trade like this.
Looking at QRVO here. The last year has basically been a round trip for the stock, drifting as low as 76 or so back in March and then shooting up past 103 recently. It's hard to ignore that kind of snapback, but I'm cautious about chasing a name that just climbed over 20 percent in a couple of months. The recent strength could be some recovery optimism in the sector, or maybe positioning ahead of earnings, but it also looks like we’re right up against resistance from last autumn’s highs. I'm leaning neutral to slightly bullish at these levels but I’m not swinging for the fences. My target is 113.00, which is about 10 percent upside from here. That feels achievable if we see handset demand pick up or if QRVO drops some positive guidance next quarter. Their exposure to RF chips for smartphones is still a solid long term story, but it’s not exactly getting easier Apple and Samsung are still the key drivers and that’s not changing overnight. If there’s a risk, I’d say it’s that QRVO’s recent move was just a technical catch up and not really tied to a big change in fundamentals. Last year, whenever the stock spiked, it gave some of it back a month or two later. Not impossible that happens again. If management guides down or end market demand softens, this could be dead money into the fall. I’ll be watching the next quarterly report for any hint of gross margin improvement or commentary about new design wins. That’s the catalyst for any move above my target. But for now, I'm setting 113.00 as my mark and keeping position size small.
Looking at META around 632.51, I have to say this is not the cleanest setup lately. There’s been a pretty wide swing in the last several months a high near 775 last fall, a deep drop below 600 in November, and most recently bouncing between about 610 and 670. That kind of volatility makes it hard to call this “cheap,” especially with a pretty big retracement just in the last few weeks.
Still, I lean cautiously bullish here, targeting 735.00 over the next quarter or so. META’s continued discipline on cost control has been a clear positive, and the company keeps finding ways to grow engagement even as the big Facebook/Instagram engines look a bit mature. As messy as the chart looks, I’m inclined to give management credit for staying focused on margins and keeping buybacks going, which has consistently supported the stock in the last couple cycles.
The risk is pretty obvious: there’s not a ton of room for error in expectations, and if there’s another big guide down or even a perception that user growth is flattening, we might see another move below 600. The last dip to the high 500s was not pleasant, and it could easily happen again if market mood sours. The volatility is a real concern. I’m not throwing around big position sizes here.
Upcoming earnings will be key if they can deliver a solid print and perhaps reiterate confidence on forward guidance, that should be enough to get back toward the 700s. Not a home run, but a reasonable move given how much air has already come out of the stock since last year’s highs.
SBUX has been all over the place this past year, so I'm keeping my expectations pretty realistic. The stock fell pretty hard last fall, dipping as low as the low 80s, and only really clawed its way back to the current 99 level in the last couple months. Honestly, most of that rebound feels like a relief rally after a long period of underperformance. I'm leaning slightly bullish from here, but with a clear cap on upside.
Starbucks has some positives in its favor: the loyalty program continues to drive steady foot traffic even as consumer spending gets choppy, and their international growth (China especially) is still intact, just maybe coming in a bit slower than the market hoped for. Recent management commentary has been more conservative, which is actually a good sign in my view they aren't blowing smoke.
My target is 112.00, so that's about a 13 point move from here. That's not shooting for the stars, but it's about as much as I want to risk right now. The big risk is clear: if U.S. consumer demand softens in the back half of the year, SBUX is going to struggle to show any real earnings growth, and comps could get ugly. Labor pressures are still there too, and any big news on union progress could spook the stock on a headline.
The next earnings print should be telling, especially if we see any stabilization in US traffic or better than expected margins. If they can actually guide higher for the rest of the year, I could see that being the spark to push toward that 112 handle. But if they guide down again, this could get stuck below 100 for a while. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I'm not deluding myself into thinking this is a layup.
TER's run over the past year honestly makes me a little uneasy. Looking at the price action, it's gone from 80 ish just last summer to nearly 376 now. That's not normal growth even for a hot sector. There were a couple of sharp spikes (August, then January and February), and even a dip or two, but the overall direction is pretty much vertical. I get why people are excited, but chasing at these levels isn't really my style.
Now, I'm not outright bearish here. There's clearly real momentum, and the company probably has a catalyst coming up (earnings in about a month). A big beat could squeeze this even higher, especially if there's another round of upgrades. But I can't ignore how much optimism seems priced in. If their guidance even wobbles, this thing could get hit pretty hard.
What gives me pause is the valuation relative to what's been delivered so far. The chart is amazing, but I don't see enough fundamental upside to justify paying almost 5x what people were paying half a year ago. That and, honestly, this kind of parabolic move is usually followed by a period of consolidation or a pullback. I'll stick my neck out just a bit and say target price is 400.00 still up from here but not by much. That's a roughly 6 percent move, so nothing crazy.
Big risk: if there's a miss or the market just cools off on the name, these gains could evaporate fast. I'll be watching that next earnings call closely if things blow out again, maybe there's a new leg up, but for now, I'm not betting the farm.
Looking at RBLX right now, I can't ignore how brutal this past year has been for the stock. It peaked near 130 back in September and has been on a pretty relentless slide ever since. Sitting at 48.16 today does feel like a big reset. There's a temptation to call a bottom, but honestly? I'm not convinced we're out of the woods yet.
My stance is bearish in the near term. The drop from 130 to 45 is massive and while some might see value here, I'm concerned about user growth stalling out and spending per user not really keeping pace. The company has yet to prove it can consistently monetize its heavy user base, and that story hasn't changed much even as they've pushed new updates and partnerships. Competition in online gaming is only getting tougher and it's not clear that RBLX has some kind of moat protecting it from the next hit platform.
The risk here is that the selloff has already priced in a lot of negativity. If they can show any real acceleration in bookings or engagement in the next quarter, the stock could bounce hard. I just don't see a clear catalyst until the next earnings, and if those numbers disappoint (or even just come in flat), there could be another leg down. So I'm setting a target price of 40.00 for the next 6 weeks. That's not a huge drop but it reflects my expectation for more volatility and possible disappointment before any turnaround story can take hold.
If RBLX manages to surprise with a user retention uptick or some unexpected licensing deal in the summer, I'll have to re evaluate, but right now I think caution is warranted.
TXN has had a wild ride over the last year. If you look at the chart, you see a pretty choppy trend: sharp drops from last summer, then a decent attempt at a recovery, only to slump again into the fall. That November low below 160 was brutal. But since the winter, the pace has totally changed. It started grinding up, and recently the move to 285 was way stronger than I'd expected for a stock like this.
I'm leaning bearish at this level. At 302.73, TXN is pricing in a lot of good news and I don't see much margin for error. The demand recovery in analog chips is happening, but inventory corrections aren't done yet and I think there are still a couple quarters of choppy orders ahead. Margins look stretched right now and any slip in end market demand (especially industrials) could easily lead to a guide down.
One risk is that TXN surprises with stronger than expected orders from auto or defense, which have been kind of a wild card in the past. Also, multiple expansion has been a thing across the sector, so maybe the market shrugs off any softness for a while. But from here I expect some mean reversion. I'm setting my near term target at 255.00, which is about where things stabilized back in April and fits if multiples reset a bit.
The next major catalyst is earnings in a few weeks. If they talk soft on the call or push back their guidance for a full recovery, I think we'll see 255 fairly quickly. I don't like shorting the sector in general, but this run feels overextended and I'd rather be on the sidelines or short than trying to squeeze out the last drops.
BLK has been on a bit of a ride this year. If you zoom out, you’ll see the stock bounced between just under 970 and 1160 over the last 12 months, with a couple pretty sharp drops and quick recoveries. Lately it’s clawed its way back to the 1050s after what looked like a harsh correction in March and April. I’m not chasing here, but I do think there’s a fairly steady floor around 1000 for now.
This is a big, slow moving asset manager with a reliable dividend and sticky institutional clients. It’s not going to explode upwards, but it also won’t fall apart overnight. The main reasons I’m even modestly bullish are: (1) expense ratios and flows into passive investing still seem to work in their favor, and (2) rates likely aren’t going much higher, which should be a tailwind for their AUM (and by extension, fees). A 4 to 6 percent move from here actually seems more likely than not if markets just stay stable.
I’m targeting 1105.00, which is a little more conservative than recent highs but could be realistic if investors keep rotating into these big safe names. That’s not a flashy upside, just reasonable.
Of course, there’s always the risk of a sudden market event or a major client pulling assets. If we get a sharp risk off move in equities, BLK probably trades back down to 990 territory in a hurry. Not a stock to get fancy with, but you also don’t want to get stuck if volatility spikes.
The next potential catalyst is earnings could see a small pop if there’s a beat or they announce any fresh buybacks or fee adjustments. Otherwise, this one’s mainly about not getting run over while waiting for some modest mean reversion.
Looking at PH's price action over the last year, I can't ignore how it's already run hard from around 670 last spring to pushing over 1000 just a couple months ago. It's cooled off since then and is now back near 880. That's a serious climb in a short window and probably not sustainable at that pace. I’m leaning on the cautious side here most of the easy multiple expansion might be behind us for now.
PH definitely has real strengths. I’m not denying their execution, especially on margins and finding ways to boost recurring revenue. The integration of their recent acquisitions seems to be going smoothly, maybe even better than the market expected earlier this year. Also, with the industrial theme still in play and demand holding up okay, I think there’s a decent floor under the stock for now.
However, there’s risk baked in at these levels. The main risk is that a lot of optimism is already priced in, and we could see a guide down if industrial demand starts to wobble later this year. The last pullback from above 1000 to the high 800s shows the market can get jumpy pretty quick. If next earnings disappoint even a little I could see another leg down.
I’m not bearish, but I don’t see a strong reason to chase. My target is 950.00 over the next few months, which is about 8% upside from here. That’s probably if PH can deliver a solid quarter and keep margin expansion going. If there’s a forward catalyst, it’s the next earnings print if they guide strong and keep up the integration momentum, maybe there’s a bit more room to run. But I’m staying pretty measured here given the recent volatility.
