CRWD has had an insane run lately. If you check the last year, it sat grinding sideways and honestly even dipped into the low 400s for stretches. Then out of nowhere, it explodes to $768.95 now. Feels like everyone suddenly remembered that security isn’t optional. I don’t hate the setup but it’s not cheap down here. Not after almost doubling in just a few months.
That being said, I’m actually still leaning bullish, with a target of $900.00. The main thing for me: their enterprise pipeline keeps getting stronger, and recurring revenue is obviously sticky as hell. You don’t rip out your endpoint security in a tight IT budget cycle. Also, CRWD keeps landing federal contracts. Not the sexiest news but that’s real money and it gets investors comfortable paying up for growth.
The one thing that keeps me from going super heavy here is valuation. I mean, it’s priced like nothing ever goes wrong. If they miss guidance or even just guide cautiously next quarter, the stock probably eats a 15 percent drawdown in a session. Too many people are hiding in "safe" growth right now.
The next earnings report is the obvious catalyst. If CRWD can show that all this business momentum isn’t just hype and actually beat and raise again, I think it powers through $900.00 in the next 7 weeks. I’m playing defense with stops, but I think the risk/reward is worth it for a trade.
Been tracking TGT for a while and honestly, the last year has been a rollercoaster. You had that big dip in the fall, with lows around the high 80s, and then since December it's been a steady grind higher. The recent spike in April above 130 was a surprise looked a bit overdone so I'm not shocked it's cooled off a little to where we are now at 123.71.
I'm leaning bullish from here and looking for a move to 146.00. Two main things back that up. First, Target's started to see traffic recover after last year's inventory and consumer demand mess. They're not out of the woods, but they're getting back to basics, and their digital side is less of a drag this quarter. Also worth mentioning: Walmart's recent numbers were solid, and that sentiment can spill over to TGT short term. Second, the valuation still isn't stretched if earnings keep rebounding, there's some room for multiple expansion, even if it's just a catch up to peers. The last few months have shown buyers step in every time it dips under 120.
Risk wise, I can't get around the fact that the consumer's still shaky and if we get a soft holiday season coming up, TGT could easily chop sideways or even revisit the low 100s. I'm not all in here. If management guides down next quarter or margin pressures crop up again, I'd bail and re evaluate.
The upcoming earnings report is my main catalyst. If they can show traffic is holding steady and margins are trending up, I expect the stock to get a quick re rate higher. Not betting the house but I like the setup for a move to 146.00 over the next few months.
HCA has had a wild ride over the past year. It went from the high 370s last summer, surged to over 530 in March, and now it's pulled back hard to the 390s. That run up from fall through winter was intense, and honestly, it felt a little overextended. Now it's dropped almost 25 percent from the highs and is sitting way closer to where it was a year ago. This kind of move in a giant like HCA does catch my attention.
I'm bullish from here, but not looking for fireworks. My target is 453.00. I think most of the froth from the run up has come out, and we’re looking at a more reasonable entry. HCA’s core business is still solid. Hospital demand is steady, and the labor cost spikes that hit the sector in 2022 2023 have started to cool off. Margins should stabilize, and I expect some bounceback in volumes as elective procedures pick up pace again. They’ve also been buying back shares aggressively, which should help keep a floor under the stock.
The obvious risk is further weakness from here if the healthcare labor market tightens up again or if any regulatory drama crops up (always possible with hospital chains). Plus, the stock is not super cheap even after the pullback, so if there’s a macro scare, it could easily dip lower for a bit.
I’m watching next quarter’s earnings for a possible beat, especially if they guide for better cost control in the back half of the year. That could really get the ball rolling again. But short term, I’m not looking for HCA to go straight back to the highs, just a steady recovery as things normalize.
Bristol Myers (BMY) has been making a bit of a comeback since that big dip last summer. If you look at the last year, shares dropped hard into the low 40s by late July and then spent months fighting back. That rebound wasn't exactly smooth sailing but now the stock's back near 57, and people seem to notice BMY means business again.
I’m bullish here into the next couple months and targeting 67.00. The main reason: the pipeline is starting to actually deliver, with new approvals and some late stage drugs that should move the revenue needle. Even with patent cliffs looming (they always loom with big pharma), BMY has kept earnings quite steady, plus the dividend is no joke. On top of that, a lot of negativity seems priced in after that drawdown. It's still trading under historic multiples for a name like this.
What could mess this up? Pipeline risk is real, and if one of their big studies flops or the FDA has issues, that’ll sting. Also, buyout rumors can get weird with these valuations, but I wouldn't count on them as a positive.
Near term catalyst is the next earnings print in about 6 weeks. Management will address both the pipeline and cost control, and if they beat and give any sort of upside, I think funds pile back in. Feels like the market is ready to believe in large cap pharma again, and BMY is a cheap way to play that reversal just don’t expect fireworks overnight.
APA has been on a wild ride over the past year. Anyone looking at the chart will see how it crawled along under 25 for months and then just ripped from late February, peaking above 43 in March. Since then, it’s dropped back into the high 30s and feels like it’s trying to find its range. That’s a big move for a company that, let’s be honest, wasn’t exactly the market darling for most of 2025.
I’m leaning bullish here with a near term target of 45.00. The main reason: commodity prices are holding up better than expected, and APA’s Permian exposure is an obvious lever. As long as oil stays sticky above 80 a barrel, their cash flow is going to surprise on the upside. They’ve also been trimming costs and divesting non core assets, so operational leverage actually matters now. Plus, the buybacks have quietly stepped up since Q1 maybe not headline grabbing, but it’s adding up.
What gives me pause is how sensitive this is to even a modest pullback in oil. If crude dips, APA can easily roundtrip back to the low 30s just like we saw after March. That volatility matters if you’re trying to sleep at night, and it’s especially real around earnings or OPEC headlines. So I wouldn’t size this up too much until the next earnings call is out of the way.
Eyes on the Q2 numbers in a few weeks management’s guide on capital allocation and production should be a good tell if this run can stick. If they keep printing cash and don’t guide down, I think we’ll see 45.00 again. Just have to be nimble if the macro flips or oil loses steam.
Anybody watching CL lately? Looking at the past year, it's been a rollercoaster. We saw it dip below $80 a few times back in October and December, and then a huge ramp in February up near $98. Lately it's settled closer to $90, but that kind of movement is pretty unusual for what should be a boring old consumer defensive name.
I think there’s upside from here. My target’s $105.30 in about 12 weeks. A couple reasons: first, cost pressures are actually easing a bit now that commodity prices have calmed down, and that should finally start to show up in gross margins next quarter. Second, these guys have kept organic sales growth positive even in the face of all this pricing noise so they’re passing through costs without losing too much volume, which is honestly not a given in this environment. If management guides to a beat, you’ll see some multiple expansion again.
Not saying there isn’t risk if input costs spike again or if retailers start pushing back harder on price, you could easily see $80 again. It’s not a slam dunk, and that recent volatility is a little concerning. But for a defensive with a sticky product portfolio, I’ll take that risk for a few months.
Next catalyst is the quarterly earnings in about 8 weeks. If they show improved margin or even just decent volume numbers, I expect the market to get more comfortable paying a premium again.
Looking at ETN at 401.53, I'm leaning bullish for the next couple months. The price action over the past year has been anything but smooth lots of chop last summer, a big pop going into January, then a bit of a reset during the winter. But since the start of the year, it's been a pretty clear stair step up with the latest close at 425.55. That's a strong move, but not so parabolic that it feels overheated (yet).
I like a couple things here. First, Eaton's exposure to electrification and grid infrastructure puts them on the right side of the macro trends. All the talk about power grid upgrades and more resilient infrastructure isn't going away, and ETN gets a direct seat at that table. Plus, these aren't tiny contracts. When you land a grid modernization deal, it's multi year revenue with real margin attached.
Also, they’ve managed to keep margin expansion going in a tough environment, which not everyone in industrials can say. If they can keep that up and even surprise a bit on next quarter's guidance, I think the market's willing to give some more multiple. That's why I'm targeting 475.00 about 18 percent above where it sits right now. Not wild, but pretty solid risk/reward if they keep up this trajectory.
The main thing that could trip this up is if we get a big pullback in industrial spending or if supply chain headaches flare up again. That said, I’m watching for the next earnings call in about 6 8 weeks. If they beat and raise, I think that’s the next real leg up.
CMCSA's chart looks a bit like a ski slope the past year. Zooming out, it was hanging out in the mid 30s last summer, then just kept sliding every couple weeks nothing catastrophic, but it went from 35 to under 28 before this month. Now it's trading at 25.03, which is a level not seen since the early pandemic. Feels like a lot of pain has already been priced in.
I think we're bottoming out here. The core business (cable, broadband, NBCUniversal) isn't exactly exciting, but it's stable cashflow. The market seems to have gotten overly pessimistic about cord cutting and streaming losses, but the company still throws off solid free cash. There’s also the looming possibility they’ll get more aggressive on buybacks at these levels, which would put a floor under the stock. I’m looking for a rebound to 29.00 over the next couple months.
Biggest risk is competition streaming is a knife fight and if Peacock keeps burning cash or if broadband subscriber losses accelerate, the multiple could compress further. Not going to pretend that can’t happen. But at 25 bucks this is a defensive play with a decent margin of safety for me.
Next earnings (should be late July) is a catalyst to watch. If they talk up improved streaming economics or announce buybacks/div hikes, that could be the spark for a move back to the high 20s. Not an adrenaline rush stock, but I like the risk/reward from here, aiming for 29.00 by the end of summer.
OKTA's chart this year is just a slow motion car crash. It was flirting with 125 less than a year ago and now we're staring at 83.90. The slide isn’t random noise either sentiment totally flipped around last summer and it's been a pretty clear downtrend ever since, with a couple of limp attempts at bouncing. I know a lot of people blame security specific hiccups and execution stumbles, but the reality is there's been a lot of management turnover and customers are sitting on their hands when it comes to new contracts.
I’m leaning bearish here with a target of 68.00. Customer growth has stalled and while they're trying to pivot more to enterprise, there’s just not evidence it’s catching on in the near term. They keep talking up pipeline but last quarter’s numbers didn’t inspire confidence. Also, their competitors are getting more aggressive on pricing and I don’t see OKTA having enough moat to fight that off without more pain to gross margin.
One thing to watch is next quarter’s guidance if they guide down again, I think that’s when you see another leg lower. But honestly, even a slight beat probably just gets shrugged at these levels. The risk I see is if they announce a major strategic partnership or even buyout chatter catches fire, because a name this beaten up could absolutely rip on any headline. That’s not the base case, though.
I wouldn’t rush to short the absolute bottom, but if the trend holds, we could see 68.00 in the next 8 weeks. There's just too many headwinds right now.
EMR has been on a rollercoaster over the last year. Quick glance at the chart: it ripped up from around 107 last spring, got all the way to the 150s in Feb, then gave most of that back just as quickly. Lately it's bounced again to the low 140s. That's not exactly a smooth uptrend, but the company hasn't messed up fundamentally. It's just swinging with the cycle.
I'm actually bullish from here, targeting 164.00 in the next couple months. Main reason: their last few quarters have shown a pretty resilient order book even as everyone keeps waiting for industrial slowdown headlines. The recent pullback from 157 to the current 138 handle looks more like macro anxiety than anything EMR specific. I think it's overshot. Also, they're quietly expanding their software and automation segment which is less cyclical than core hardware. Gets zero love from most folks watching the sector.
One risk that nags at me: if we get a real recession, EMR obviously isn't immune. Their past dips show that. But unless we see a big guide down next quarter, I think the growth story is intact. Watch for their next earnings call if they talk about strong backlog and reaffirm guidance, that should be the greenlight for another leg up.
I'm not expecting fireworks overnight, but the last few months proved EMR can whiplash in both directions. If sentiment flips, this thing could push to new highs fast. Main thing is not to chase if it gets back into the 150s before earnings, but at these levels, I like the risk/reward setup for a roughly 19 percent move.
